Moderna Looks Undervalued Now. A Valuation

Dear Reader,

Moderna, the coronavirus COVID-19 vaccine maker, is currently valued at 41.34 bln. USD by public markets. Moderna's stock price fell approximately 38 % from its recent December peak.

At the current valuation, I estimate Moderna is undervalued. Moderna's vaccine should sell for around 20 USD a jab. If Moderna sells 1 billion shots from its vaccine this would mean 20 billion USD in revenue. Yes, the revenue will come lumpy in the space of 2 years, but if you distribute it for 5 years this means 4 billion USD in revenue a year. Quickly growing biotechnology companies sell at very high valuations. If Moderna is valued reasonably at 30 times Price/Sales, this means Moderna is currently worth 30*4=120 billion USD, so Moderna's stock price has 200 % upside potential from current levels.

Furthermore, messenger RNA is the new hot scientific track in medicine. Many specialists foresee mRNA to be able to cure cancer and facilitate breakthroughs in the treatment of other diseases that are a scourge for humanity at present. But these are future prospects, expectations and extrapolations.

Currently, Moderna is expected with a high degree of confidence to make more than 10 billion USD in revenue from its COVID-19 vaccine in the space of the next few years.

So, I think Moderna is undervalued now.

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Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

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Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich