Can a New Lockdown Lead to a Stock Market Crash?

Dear Reader,

A new economic lockdown in the USA will almost certainly crash the major US stock market indices by more than 30%. The Nasdaq composite could fall more than 40 % even.

Why? Even as things stand US stocks, technology stocks especially, are overvalued. For US technology companies the investing public is rightly assuming that the coronavirus will speed up digital transformation and technology corporations will ultimately achieve higher profits and revenues. But much like during the dot-com boom and subsequent bust the market is assuming the profits and revenue increases will come sooner and in bigger sizes than possible.

That is why technology stocks in the US are grossly overvalued as of this moment. Yes, in 5 to 10 years the US technology companies could grow into their valuations, but a new lockdown could crash the DJIA, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite by 30% or even more. 

And the coronavirus could force both Trump or Biden to lock down the economy, no matter the short-term economic consequences.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Apple Valuation. A Calendar Q3 2020 Earnings Update

Dear Reader,

Apple reported its fiscal fourth quarter 2020 earnings, which reflect roughly calendar third quarter 2020 earnings.

At 50 bln. USD for the fiscal fourth quarter of 2020 Apple reported slightly lower revenue than the comparable fiscal fourth quarter of 2019 when revenue was 51.5 bln. USD.

The main reason is the postponement of the launch in stores of iPhone 12. However, Apple's just reported results are not stellar anyway. Yes, Apple's net profit margin remains high at circa 25.27 %, but Apple seems to have reached peak sales currently. Apparently the coronavirus pandemic is starting slowly to take its toll on consumers and they balk at buying large ticket items like iPhones and Macs. Yes, it is clear that the digital transformation will be accelerated because of the coronavirus, but still consumers have to earn money from somewhere to buy personal computers, tablets and mobile phones. The tourism, hospitality and travel industries have been decimated all over the globe and this deprives many consumers from income with which to buy Apples' hardware products. Which basically means the replacement cycle for Apple's iPhones, Macs and iPads will become longer.

Currently Apple is valued at 1.85 trillion by public markets. I estimate that is peak valuation for Apple currently. Apple's current stock market value could only be justified by its huge profit margin. For the next 3 years Apple will have to grow into this valuation. Yes, Apple's stock price could still overshoot even more or undershoot if a new lockdown provokes indiscriminate selling. But as long as there is no vaccine, the coronavirus is bound to take its toll on the economy and on Apple's sales. Apple even at this level looks overvalued.

Today, at 31 October 2020, I think Apple's is worth around 1.37 trillion USD. In 3 to 4 years Apple may well earn enough money to grow into its current public market valuation of 1.85 trillion USD.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

How to Analyze Cryptocurrencies Investments?

Dear Reader,

The best way to analyze cryptocurrencies issued by particular companies is the same way companies' common stocks are analyzed. 

Since cryptocurrencies issued by companies derive their value mainly from the future value creation of the companies' projects, the best way to analyze such cryptocurrency investments are by pouring through the income statements, balance sheets, cash flow statements, statements of equity and other documents of the particular company. In addition, one has to scrutinize closely the company's management and the particular projects with which the cryptocurrency in question is connected.

Cryptocurrencies are basically leveraged stocks investment, which are not part of the particular company estate in case of bankruptcy. With other words, an investor in cryptocurrency could make hundreds of times his or hers initial investment, but also lose all of one's invested in the particular cryptocurrency money.

Active risk management is key. 

As with any startup investment, close examination of management and key personnel's qualities, vision and stature is essential.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Cryptocurrencies as Investment in Companies

Dear Reader,

Cryptocurrencies issued by particular companies are actually an investment in the issuing company itself, much like stocks. Cryptocurrencies depend on the particular company's project they are issued on and thus are basically an investment in the resources of the particular companies, be it human, technological or patents.

Cryptocurrencies are essentially a leveraged stocks investment, since they do not participate in the bankruptcy estate of the company. Cryptocurrencies are useful for financing startups' projects which earlier either did not get any financing at all or were financed by angels or family and friends.

Central banks are ever more lenient on cryptocurrencies, so cryptocurrencies' future looks bright. Cryptocurrencies initial coin offerings and initial exchange offerings are getting ever more popular financing vehicle for companies. As cryptocurrencies' secondary liquidity improves, cryptocurrencies are getting even more adoption and traction.

Cryptocurrencies are a hot new trend, an investment play on the future, much like internet stocks were in the dot-com bubble in 2000. Yes, many of these internet stocks were hugely overvalued and they went bankrupt, but the internet stayed and profoundly changed our lives and will go on transforming our everyday life. Cryptocurrency offers the same promise to change how we pay, invest and transact. Promise, at least.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Cryptocurrencies Mass Adoption as an Asset Class

Dear Reader,

Cryptocurrencies are becoming more and more mainstream as an asset class.

In their nature cryptocurrencies issued by corporations are similar to stocks in that they hinge on the company's prospects. However, they also can function as a means of payment as Bitcoin, Ethereum and Facebook's Libra. So cryptocurrencies are an interesting hybrid between money and common stocks.

Cryptocurrencies function almost like stocks, but they depend on the general public accepting them as money. However, stocks are also sort of money. Common stocks, especially liquid large developed markets stocks, function as a unit of account, store of value and means of exchange, which are the main traits of money, actually the definition of money.

So cryptocurrencies are leveraged stocks bets essentially. Leveraged, because cryptocurrencies do not participate in the capital structure of the firm and are not part of the bankruptcy estate of the firm.

Global central banks are studying and experimenting with cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Libra are the main independent cryptocurrencies that have the largest chance of mass adoption. Smaller companies' more obscure cryptocurrencies could bring huge windfalls by rising tens or even hundreds of times in value. However, good company analysis has to be executed in order to realize these windfalls from small, less obvious cryptocurrency opportunities.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Artificial Intelligence Stocks

Dear Reader,

Artificial intelligence is the great disruptor of our time. Algorithms and robots are taking over gradually initially small parts of almost all areas of life. Artificial intelligence saves time, effort and money for employers and companies are moving more and more to computerized, automated environments.

Which listed companies' stocks stand to benefit from artificial intelligence? Almost all technology stocks, basically since they use algorithms or artificial intelligence in one form or another. However, companies like Microsoft, Amazon which are large capitalization stocks will benefit disproportionately since they offer artificial intelligence/machine learning as a service. Palantir Technologies is the first relatively large pure artificial intelligence product company.

Although Palantir Technologies offers also consultancy services, it has one of the first viable, scalable and efficient artificial intelligence products. Palantir Technologies counts many government agencies and corporations among its clients.

Social networks like Facebook, Snapchat and Pinterest also will reap a lot of success as they use algorithms or artificial intelligence for their content feeds and to match users.

Intel and AMD will also win from artificial intelligence since algorithms need computing power, but their gains will be smaller.

Software and automation is the future and artificial intelligence or algorithms is what powers humanity's future destiny.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Palantir Technologies' Intrinsic Value

Dear Reader,

Palantir technologies current valuation by public markets is 16 billion USD. I forecast Palantir Technologies could reach 100 billion USD in value in 5 to 7 years.

In the mean time, if the Nasdaq composite and the DJIA and the Standard and Poor's  indices crash Palantir Technologies  will fall along the main US indices. Thus Palantir Technologies' undervaluation could become even more extreme.

Palantir Technologies  has arguably the most advanced scalable artificial intelligence product on the market. Artificial intelligence is the future, so Palantir Technologies' profit and revenue potential is practically limitless.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Global Central Banks' Cryptocurrencies

Dear Reader,

The European Central Bank is planning to issue a reserve cryptocurrency in 2023. The People's Bank of China already issued a reserve cryptocurrency, which is being tested internally in four major Chinese cities. The Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve are in advanced planning stage to issue a reserve cryptocurrency.

If global governments, that is global central banks are planning to issue their own cryptocurrencies, the future of cryptocurrencies is undoubtedly bright.

Most cryptocurrencies are akin to stocks and the cryptocurrency market exhibits 80% correlation with the US stock market since the beginning of 2020. With 50% gain Bitcoin is the best performing asset class since the beginning of the year along with technology stocks.

Cryptocurrencies investing is a leverage investing in the stock of the issuer of the cryptocurrency, since cryptocurrencies support certain projects of their issuing entities. That is, when one uses cryptocurrencies eventually issued by central banks, one puts his trust in the central bank and the monetary system at large.

Cryptocurrencies seem like innovative, breakthrough vehicle that build on common stocks' participation in a company's project, but do not participate in the capital structure and are thus much riskier than stocks.

However, the largest cryptocurrencies definitely look undervalued.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

The US Stock Market and the 2020 US Presidential Election

Dear Reader,

The 2020 US Presidential Election is scheduled for 3rd of November 2020. If Joseph(Joe) Biden wins, there may be a new economic lockdown, which will crash global stock markets. If Donald Trump wins, US stock market indices will most probably continue their recent rise but mildly.

What is more, Joe Biden wants to raise taxes and increase regulation which will again put downward pressure on stock markets. If Joe Biden, however, decides not to impose lockdowns the market could rise even more than under possible second presidential mandate of Donald Trump. Technology stocks will rise a lot if Joe Biden becomes President of the US and does not impose lockdowns.

Trump's Presidency, however, has been very successful for US stock markets which went rising continuously on his watch. Trump's lower taxes contributed handsomely to US corporations' profits.

Basically, without a lockdown, I forecast US and major global stock indices will continue rising, be it mildly though. If the coronavirus disease explodes though, than both Trump and Biden's hands will be forced and they will institute lockdowns whoever becomes President of the US, which will make DJIA and S&P 500 lose more than 30 %, while the Nasdaq composite could fall more than 40 % from current levels.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Snapchat Stock Forecast

Dear Reader,

Snap Inc., the maker of the Snapchat application, is currently valued at 39.7 billion USD by public markets with a stock price of 27.00 USD.

I forecast in 3-4 years Snap Inc.'s stock price could quadruple to 108 USD. Snapchat and Pinterest are basically the most viable competitors to Facebook and a real threat to Facebook's dominance in social networking. It is no coincidence that Facebook keeps copying Snapchats' features, not only for Facebook, but for its Instagram property.

Yes, the user growth of Snapchat has stalled lately, but its revenue keeps growing quickly. And as Pinterest latest user numbers show, user growth can explode suddenly. Snapchat is an excellent product, which has gained a lot of traction with Millennials and Generation Z.

Of course, if the  US stock market crashes due to a new coronavirus lockdown for example, Snap's stock price could fall a lot and it could take longer for it to reach 108 USD. But, nonetheless, Snap Inc.'s, the owner of Snapchat application, prospects look bright. And yes, it does have a moat around its product. Snapchat's moat is its young demographic user base and ability to produce new and innovative features.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Palantir Technologies Prospects

Dear Reader,

Palantir Technologies is a platform for data gathering, integration and subsequent analysis that recently listed on the New York Stock Exchange.

Palantir technologies is looking to become the dominant data analysis as infrastructure service. The potential for such services is huge. What Palantir Technologies is basically doing is using artificial intelligence to gather, model and analyze data and predict outcomes.

Artificial intelligence is the buzzword and the future. The one company who builds a scalable product to provide artificial intelligence to analyze data will be hugely successful. And Palantir Technologies is miles ahead of most other firms in this field. Its main competitors for machine learning/artificial intelligence as a service are Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure, the machine learning as a service products of Amazon and Microsoft.

Palantir is on track to make 1 billion USD in revenue in 2020. It has many contracts with the US government and major corporations already and has scalable products. Currently Palantir Technologies is valued at 16.4 billion USD by public markets. I estimate Palantir Technologies is worth 45 billion USD in the next 5 years or a stock price of close to 30 USD and if it becomes the frontrunner in scalable artificial intelligence it can reach 100 billion USD in market capitalization in 7 to 10 years.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Are the Main Cryptocurrencies Undervalued?

Dear Reader,

Are the main cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum undervalued?

Yes, they are. 1 Bitcoin currently exchanges for 11 395.60 USD. I believe in the next 3-4 years Bitcoin's price could reach 20 000 USD. Why? Cryptocurrencies are a wave of the future. A megatrend. The world is moving more and more to computers, algorithms and artificial intelligence. Cryptocurrencies are basically computerized money.

How to value cryptocurrencies? Bitcoin is basically a play on cryptocurrencies' global adoption. I believe the world will sooner or later at least partially accept cryptocurrencies as money, so Bitcoin is undervalued. Ethereum is an investment in cryptocurrencies as money and as an applications platform. Facebook's Libra Cryptocurrency is a fintech/payments/online purchases prospect. Cryptocurrencies issued by startups are basically a highly leveraged investment into the future net profits of these startups. Investment similar to stocks, but much more leveraged and risky, of course.

The interesting thing about cryptocurrencies is that their mass adoption to a large extent hinges on their profitability as an investment vehicle. If people continue to make a lot of money investing in cryptocurrencies issued by startups and larger companies, people will use more and more cryptocurrencies, the news will spread, cryptocurrencies could become a fad like the dot-com internet stocks, but this ultimately will lead to the mass adoption of cryptocurrency as quasi money, quasi stocks investment.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Cryptocurrency Investing and Global Central Banks

Dear Reader,

Cryptocurrencies are fully on their way to become a mainstream investment vehicle. One of the last remaining obstacles to this goal is the benevolence of central banks.

However attaining the full regulatory permission for cryptocurrencies of leading global central banks like the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan is not far way.

Both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve have initiated studies into either issuing their own reserve cryptocurrency or the effect of cryptocurrencies on the financial system. Which only speaks that some sort of cryptocurrency regulatory regime most likely is being planned.

Actually, this is ironic as cryptocurrencies were invented precisely to avoid central bank regulation. But I suppose some light tough regulation could only help. Once cryptocurrencies are fully acknowledged by central banks, cryptocurrencies could really become mainstream along other fiat currencies. Such a development will only raise markedly the liquidity on the cryptocurrency market and make investing in cryptocurrencies even more viable alternative to traditional stock investing.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Palantir Technologies Valuation. Investment in Artificial Intelligence

Dear Reader,

Palantir Technologies, the data mining company heavily drawing on artificial intelligence, recently staged an Initial Public Offering. Currently public markets value Palantir at 15.16 billion USD.

I think Palantir Technologies is significantly undervalued. Palantir Technologies is basically a play on artificial intelligence. In my opinion, Palantir Technologies could be worth 45 billion USD in the next 2-3 years. In the first half of 2020 up until 30 June 2020 Palantir Technologies made 481.216 million USD and is well on track to bring in 1 billion USD in revenue for the full 2020 which will be 400% growth on the 322.656 million USD Palantir Technologies made in revenues in 2019.

Palantir Technologies is still unprofitable, but at this growth rate of revenue its software based artificial intelligence and data mining business could turn into a money printing machine relatively quickly above some level of revenue. 

My forecast of Palantir Technologies reaching 45 billion USD in market capitalization, of course is predicated on the stock market measured by the main global stock market indices and especially the Nasdaq composite, not crashing. If major US and global stock market indices crash, it could take 5-7 years for Palantir Technologies to reach 45 billion USD market capitalization.

But the future lies with artificial intelligence and Palantir Technologies is one of the major listed technology companies based on which you can invest in artificial intelligence.

All said, Palantir Technologies has to become profitable. At 78% yearly negative net profit margin for 2019 Palantir Technologies is still burning cash heavily. If Palantir Technologies controls costs well and continues to grow its revenue by excess of 50 % year on year it could turn an even more successful company indeed.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Cryptocurrency. Future Opportunities

Dear Reader, 

Cryptocurrencies are shaping up to be an emerging leading asset class. Bitcoin in USD has outperformed spot gold quoted in USD and the major global stock market indices since the beginning of 2020.

Cryptocurrencies, though, are much more volatile than commodities and stocks, especially. When investing in cryptocurrencies a stellar and rigorous risk management has to be applied. The investing in most cryptocurrencies issued by companies is akin to investing in stocks. One has to analyze carefully and correctly the underlying business of the company to determine if the attached cryptocurrency is undervalued. When investing in cryptocurrencies financial statements analysis is equally important when investing in stocks.

Since their more leveraged nature, cryptocurrencies are not entitled to a part of the estate of the company in case of a bankruptcy, cryptocurrencies tend to rise much more and fall more abruptly than common listed company stocks.

But the future belongs well and truly at least partly to cryptocurrencies. Global central banks are becoming more and more lenient toward cryptocurrencies investing. The threat of regulation was and still is the last hindrance to the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies as a means of exchange, store of value and a unit of account. Or with other words - money. Cryptocurrencies, however, have one great advantage - they can, if picked wisely, increase wealth much like common stocks.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Nikola Corporation Valuation

Dear Reader,

Nikola Corporation, the company planning to produce zero-emissions automotive vehicles is currently valued at 7.38 billion USD. And Nikola Corporation used to be valued at more than 20 billion USD until recently.

As far as I am concerned, Nikola is not worth more than 1 billion USD currently. Nikola Corporation is currently just a story stock. All it has behind it is the promise it will start producing electric trucks in 2023 under a General Motors partnership. But designing and ultimately producing electric vehicles profitable is an extremely hard task, as Tesla has shown.

Nikola Corporation's stock price is apparently mainly driven by retail investors like Tesla's. Retail investors, especially people with technology background, are infatuated with electric vehicles and the future. There are of course car enthusiasts, as well. Electric mobility may well be the future, but the valuation multiples of Tesla are crazy. Nikola Corporation's valuation metrics are absurd. Nikola will make something like 100 000 USD in revenue in 2020 and it trades at 7.38 billion market capitalization. Only losses are recorded up till now.

We are most definitely in a bubble. Every stock that has a good story attached to it like electric mobility, plant meat, cryptocurrencies etc. basically explodes in value. Apparently too much money is chasing too few listed companies. I believe even after the recent fall the Nasdaq Composite is overvalued by 45%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are overvalued by 30%. However, the free liquidity coming from global central banks can prop up this virtually all assets, stocks, bonds, real estate bubble just a little bit longer.

Nikola Corporation is a glaring example of a bubble. You invest in future earnings, without having almost anything in the recent past to lean on. Only a promise. A pure speculation. Yes, if miraculously all works out perfectly and Nikola Corporation makes many multiples of the initial investment for its shareholders everything is fine. But I estimate the chances of such an event are no more than 6 %.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Cryptocurrency Investments. A Detailed View

Dear Reader,

Cryptocurrencies have become a legitimate investment vehicle. Due to their high volatility, though, one has to proceed with extreme caution when investing in cryptocurrencies. However, long-term investing still works. If one has invested in Bitcoin in 2015 when cryptocurrencies started off, he or she would have made 30 times multiple on his or her investment. Investment in other fringe cryptocurrencies would have brought even greater riches.

The future promise of cryptocurrencies displacing at least partly paper money is huge and is bound to bring more interest and progress for cryptocurrencies. The price of cryptocurrencies has to go up, though, in order for the investment interest to really explode. Cryptocurrencies, if left to the invisible hand of the market, are sure to seriously disrupt a stale and elite sector like finance and financial intermediation.

Initial Coin Offerings have already partially disrupted Initial Public Offerings of stocks. Bitcoin will remain the flagship product of the cryptocurrencies revolution. However, cryptocurrencies issued by particular companies will quickly become mainstream and augment stocks as an investment vehicle. Cryptocurrencies investing is not a threat to common stocks investing. On the contrary, cryptocurrencies investing will bring about newbie investors who will dabble into common stocks investing later. 

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Unity Software IPO Valuation. Gaming

Dear Reader,

Here I am going to attempt to value Unity Software Inc., the cross-platform game engine developer that went public through an Initial Public Offering last Friday, 18th of September 2020.

Public markets currently value Unity Software at 18 billion USD. Unity made a net loss of 163.2 million USD on revenue of 541.8 million USD last year which makes for a Price/Sales ratio of 33. Unity Software revenue grew 42 % in full year 2019 compared to 2018 full year revenue. For the last two reported quarters up until June 2020 Unity software grew revenue with circa 40% year on year at a 720 million USD yearly run rate. The negative net profit margin of Unity at approximately - 15% is not that bad actually.

I estimate the current intrinsic worth of Unity Software is around 12 billion USD. If the company continues to grow so fast it may well grow into its current 18 billion USD market valuation in 4 years and even surpass it by a wide margin.

The negative net profit margin of approximately -15 % for the last two available quarterly results actually speaks that Unity is not very far from profitability, especially in comparison with the negative net profit margins of other high growth technology companies of - 40% or even lower. The - 15 % negative net profit margin is a marked improvement on the circa - 30% negative net profit margin in the 2019 calendar year realized by Unity software.

And gaming is now hot during the coronavirus pandemic. Lockdowns seem to be coming again. And its game engine is used in other industries which require augmented reality technology, as well, like automobile manufacturing, which requires complex graphics.

All in all, I believe Unity Software is 33% overvalued currently That said, Unity Software has bright prospects in the next 2-3 years driven by the gaming boom caused by people staying at home due to the coronavirus disease.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Cryptocurrencies Are the Ultimate Financial Technology. Fintech

Dear Reader,

What is finance actually? Finance is about the movement of money. And cryptocurrencies are the ultimate financial technology. 

Money is a store of value, means of exchange and a unit of account. Cryptocurrencies have proven relatively effective  as means of exchange and a unit of account, but they are lacking in terms of store of value due to their high volatility.

The high volatility is a direct consequence of the relatively still low liquidity of cryptocurrencies. With the larger adoption of cryptocurrencies the liquidity of the crypto market will improve and people will be able to count on cryptocurrencies to store their wealth. Due to their decentralized nature, cryptocurrencies could finally become more secure than fiat money, due to the wisdom of the crowd.

If the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in terms of USD shoots up, for whatever reason, this would create a great buzz around cryptocurrencies anew and will speed up the adoption and the liquidity creation of the cryptocurrencies market.

Now even the largest central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are seriously thinking of minting their own cryptocurrencies. What actually commercial banks have been doing for centuries with the reserve multiplicator. Due to the easier, less burdensome and cheaper process initial coin offerings could become prolific again since they grant access to funds for very immature, but promising start ups. 

So, as far as I am concerned, if the market is left alone it will only be a matter of time before cryptocurrencies become mainstream.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich

Snowflake IPO Valuation

Dear Reader,

Snowflake Inc., ticker SNOW, the cloud-based data-warehousing company priced an IPO this week and Snowflake's stock price more than doubled on its first day of trading.

What is the intrinsic worth of Snowflake? Snowflake is grossly overvalued.

Based on 2019 revenue of 265 million USD at market capitalization of 67 billion USD Snowflake is trading at 253 Price/Sales ratio currently. This is basically crazy. Even if Snowflake grows revenue at 120 % year on year as it has done it for the last reported quarter it will take 7 to 10 years for the company to grow into its current valuation.

The real intrinsic value of Snowflake, according to my opinion, is around 15 billion USD. Why? Even fundamentally Snowflake's business model is not very sound. It is a cloud-based data-warehousing company that wants to compete with Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet on cloud services. At the same times Snowflake relies on Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet for its cloud infrastructure. Which is basically ridiculous.

I know Warren Buffett invested more than 500 million USD in Snowflake's IPO, but Berkshire Hathaway did that mainly for fear of missing out. I think Warren Buffett has watched too many technology companies shoot up in market capitalization and is tempted to participate in the party.

We are in a technology bubble. Yes, technology companies are good investments but not at these prices. The market is overpaying heavily for growth, much like in the dot-com boom and subsequent bust in 2000. Yes, technology is the future, but these values of  both the largest capitalization technology companies and some mid-cap technology companies is totally unfounded. The Nasdaq is overvalued by 60% to 70%. However, in order the bubble to be popped there has to be some liquidity problem, mainly at the banking sector level. Either the Federal Reserve has to start raising rates or for example banks can start making losses on their technology stocks investments which would both lead to a credit crunch.

When the hot capital stops chasing the hot technology companies, the Nasdaq composite will fall by 70%. Technology, however, will continue to be the future. After the dust from the next crash settles, new technology leaders will emerge.

Capitalism's creative destruction will create its winners and losers. As always.

Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".

Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich