Dear Reader,
I expect a right-centrist candidate to win the French Presidential elections. It will be eithor Macron or Fillon who wins the second round.
I expect French government bonds to rally hard, together with a milder rally of European stocks.
The rally in US stocks should continue. US technology stocks are richly valued, but because of the smartphone and the ensuing artificial intelligence boom their rally should continue.
German 10 year government bonds yield is to remain below 0.30% in the next several months. If Marine Le Pen becomes President of France, I expect the 10 year yield on bunds to fall below -0.30%.
US WTI oil could fall below 45 USD on US shale supply.
Despite the Federal Reserve raising the Federal Funds Rate, I expect gold to rally decisively in 2017 on safe heaven demand. There are just too many Black Swans - France, North Korea etc.
EUR/USD is to remain in a tight range in the next few weeks.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
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Disclaimer:
Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights.
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks.
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks!
The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com
Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
Friday, April 21, 2017
French Elections, US Stocks, Technology Stocks, Bunds!
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, March 31, 2017
US Stocks, Gold, China, India Equities!
Dear Reader,
US equities could suffer a 10% correction in 2017. The valuations seem quite high. If Donald Trump does not manage to push through the deregulation of the financial sector I think US financials could fall more than 10%.
Gold should fall to 1050 USD in 2017. I cannot see gold rising, while the Federal Reserve is hiking rates.
US WTI Oil should fall close to 35 USD in 2017. Global demand is just too weak. China is slowing down, Europe's growth is anemic, US growth also.
China equities seem like a good investment as regards their valuations. India stocks should perform well, as India is growing strongly.
Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon could rise more.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US equities could suffer a 10% correction in 2017. The valuations seem quite high. If Donald Trump does not manage to push through the deregulation of the financial sector I think US financials could fall more than 10%.
Gold should fall to 1050 USD in 2017. I cannot see gold rising, while the Federal Reserve is hiking rates.
US WTI Oil should fall close to 35 USD in 2017. Global demand is just too weak. China is slowing down, Europe's growth is anemic, US growth also.
China equities seem like a good investment as regards their valuations. India stocks should perform well, as India is growing strongly.
Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon could rise more.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, March 16, 2017
US, Global Economy, Russia, China India Stocks, Commodities!
Dear Reader,
The Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds Rate to 1.00%. The market and the United States central bank expect two more hikes in 2017, altogether three during the current year. I forecast just one more hike. The inflation data will worsen because of the current and future fall of the oil price. The US economy is growing with 1.5% per year. This is far from the economy's potential which I judge is about 3.4% year on year GDP growth.
Stocks have some further upside. The stocks of Brazil and Russia could tumble, because of the fall of the price of oil. Chinese and Indian stocks look like a good investment, because of the growing economies of the two countries.
Oil is set to reach 30 USD around June, July 2017. The global economy is just too weak. I forecast the global GDP will grow by around 3.2% in 2017.
Gold has further to fall. Gold could reach 1050 USD before it rebounds.
I personally like US technology stocks. The mobile, artificial intelligence and cloud boom are set to drive the sector higher. The technology megacaps Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon should outperform. I like chipmakers like AMD, NVDA.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The Federal Reserve hiked the Federal Funds Rate to 1.00%. The market and the United States central bank expect two more hikes in 2017, altogether three during the current year. I forecast just one more hike. The inflation data will worsen because of the current and future fall of the oil price. The US economy is growing with 1.5% per year. This is far from the economy's potential which I judge is about 3.4% year on year GDP growth.
Stocks have some further upside. The stocks of Brazil and Russia could tumble, because of the fall of the price of oil. Chinese and Indian stocks look like a good investment, because of the growing economies of the two countries.
Oil is set to reach 30 USD around June, July 2017. The global economy is just too weak. I forecast the global GDP will grow by around 3.2% in 2017.
Gold has further to fall. Gold could reach 1050 USD before it rebounds.
I personally like US technology stocks. The mobile, artificial intelligence and cloud boom are set to drive the sector higher. The technology megacaps Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon should outperform. I like chipmakers like AMD, NVDA.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
US Technology, Financial Stocks, Federal Reserve!
Dear Reader,
My forecast of oil WTI falling to 35-40-45 USD is about to come true. Apparently, the world economy is not strong enough to absorb the spare quantity of oil.
I forecast the Federal reserve will hike the Federal funds rate two times in 2017. Something will eventually get in the way of three hikes as both the market and the central bank forecast.
Technology stocks, while richly valued, will continue to do well. Some bubbles like GoPro, Fuel GroupOn, Twitter etc. have popped, but many remain.
I personally like chip manufacturers like AMD and NVDA and cloud companies like BOX.
APPLE, Microsoft, AMZN, Google and Facebook should continue their march higher. These five companies have changed the world in a remarkable way. Technologies of the future are machine learning and cloud computing.
The US financials stocks run has gone quite far, I think. The global economy does not feel like 2007-2008 and yet Goldman Sachs' price has exceeded the 2007 high. I think US financials are due for a 10% correction.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
My forecast of oil WTI falling to 35-40-45 USD is about to come true. Apparently, the world economy is not strong enough to absorb the spare quantity of oil.
I forecast the Federal reserve will hike the Federal funds rate two times in 2017. Something will eventually get in the way of three hikes as both the market and the central bank forecast.
Technology stocks, while richly valued, will continue to do well. Some bubbles like GoPro, Fuel GroupOn, Twitter etc. have popped, but many remain.
I personally like chip manufacturers like AMD and NVDA and cloud companies like BOX.
APPLE, Microsoft, AMZN, Google and Facebook should continue their march higher. These five companies have changed the world in a remarkable way. Technologies of the future are machine learning and cloud computing.
The US financials stocks run has gone quite far, I think. The global economy does not feel like 2007-2008 and yet Goldman Sachs' price has exceeded the 2007 high. I think US financials are due for a 10% correction.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, March 10, 2017
US Stocks, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank!
Dear Reader,
US stocks wobbled during the last several trading days. I think the US stocks rally is still intact. As evidenced by the nonfarm payrolls report from today the US economy is doing well.
I still think the Federal Reserve could do two Federal Funds Rate hikes in 2017, which is still a lot. If the Fed hikes twice, I forecast the US GDP growth rate year on year will fall below 1.00%. If they hike three times or more the US economy could go into a recession.
Many market observers interpret the ECB's President Mario Draghi press conference this Thursday as hawkish. On the contrary, I think it was actually quite dovish. He spoke hawkishly, but acted dovishly. I think deeds speak louder than words in this case. I expect the yield on the ten year German governent bond to fall close to zero in the next several months.
My prediction that oil could fall to 45 USD WTI seems to be coming true. The fracking costs per barrel are now close to 30 USD, so the price could fall to 35-40 WTI USD even. Oil stocks could get hurt. If the Fed hikes rates aggressively this would hurt high yield bonds issuers as the fracking companies and topple the US economy in recession.
I think the price of gold could find a bottom at 1150 USD pre troy ounce.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US stocks wobbled during the last several trading days. I think the US stocks rally is still intact. As evidenced by the nonfarm payrolls report from today the US economy is doing well.
I still think the Federal Reserve could do two Federal Funds Rate hikes in 2017, which is still a lot. If the Fed hikes twice, I forecast the US GDP growth rate year on year will fall below 1.00%. If they hike three times or more the US economy could go into a recession.
Many market observers interpret the ECB's President Mario Draghi press conference this Thursday as hawkish. On the contrary, I think it was actually quite dovish. He spoke hawkishly, but acted dovishly. I think deeds speak louder than words in this case. I expect the yield on the ten year German governent bond to fall close to zero in the next several months.
My prediction that oil could fall to 45 USD WTI seems to be coming true. The fracking costs per barrel are now close to 30 USD, so the price could fall to 35-40 WTI USD even. Oil stocks could get hurt. If the Fed hikes rates aggressively this would hurt high yield bonds issuers as the fracking companies and topple the US economy in recession.
I think the price of gold could find a bottom at 1150 USD pre troy ounce.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Friday, March 3, 2017
Snapchat, Technology Stocks, Emerging Markets Stocks, Commodity Stocks!
Dear Reader,
Snapchat Inc.(SNAP) is trading at Prices/Sales 60 - a ridiculous valuation. Many technology stocks are in a bubble, but driven by smartphones, cloud services and artificial intelligence, the tech boom is set to continue.
Oil is to fall to 45 USD driven by US shale drilling. Large cap oil stocks could fall 10 -20%, oil frackers more than 30-40%.
Brazil, Russia, India and China stocks are undervalued. Emerging markets are now self-sustaining. Emerging markets stocks are to embark on a long term bull market, despite the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates. Many large emerging markets are pursuing market friendly reforms which could bring long term prosperity.
Gold is to rise, despite the Federal Reserve hiking the Federal Funds Rate. European stocks are undervalued, but I do not see European economic growth accelerating much. Too many structural reforms have to be undertaken in order for Europe to grow above potential.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
Snapchat Inc.(SNAP) is trading at Prices/Sales 60 - a ridiculous valuation. Many technology stocks are in a bubble, but driven by smartphones, cloud services and artificial intelligence, the tech boom is set to continue.
Oil is to fall to 45 USD driven by US shale drilling. Large cap oil stocks could fall 10 -20%, oil frackers more than 30-40%.
Brazil, Russia, India and China stocks are undervalued. Emerging markets are now self-sustaining. Emerging markets stocks are to embark on a long term bull market, despite the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates. Many large emerging markets are pursuing market friendly reforms which could bring long term prosperity.
Gold is to rise, despite the Federal Reserve hiking the Federal Funds Rate. European stocks are undervalued, but I do not see European economic growth accelerating much. Too many structural reforms have to be undertaken in order for Europe to grow above potential.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
US Technology Stocks, Japanese Stocks, Commodities, Federal Reserve!
Dear Reader,
The probability for a hike in the Federal Funds Rate come 15 March by the Federal Reserve is 80%. I still doubt the Federal Reserve will hike the FFR three times in 2017, but two hikes now seems quite likely.
US and global technology stocks should continue their march higher, I personally like AMD and BOX. AMD is making inroads in high technology processors, while BOX is at the forefront of the cloud services revolution. Just look at what happened when Amazon Web Services was down yesterday - thousands of sites that relied on AWS went down.
Oil is to remain in a tight range between 50 to 60 USD, so oil stocks have some upside 15-20% from the current levels.
Gold seems undervalued at the moment, provided the Federal Reserve is not too hawkish, so gold stocks stand to benefit.
The USD should strengthen to the Japanese YEN, so Japanese stocks could rise by 10-15%.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The probability for a hike in the Federal Funds Rate come 15 March by the Federal Reserve is 80%. I still doubt the Federal Reserve will hike the FFR three times in 2017, but two hikes now seems quite likely.
US and global technology stocks should continue their march higher, I personally like AMD and BOX. AMD is making inroads in high technology processors, while BOX is at the forefront of the cloud services revolution. Just look at what happened when Amazon Web Services was down yesterday - thousands of sites that relied on AWS went down.
Oil is to remain in a tight range between 50 to 60 USD, so oil stocks have some upside 15-20% from the current levels.
Gold seems undervalued at the moment, provided the Federal Reserve is not too hawkish, so gold stocks stand to benefit.
The USD should strengthen to the Japanese YEN, so Japanese stocks could rise by 10-15%.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, February 27, 2017
Emerging Markets Stocks, US Stocks, Technology, Federal Reserve!
Dear Reader,
The US stocks rally continues. I forecast 5-10% upside in the main indices DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P500 in 2017.
US technology stocks are basically pricing much growth in the industry, which is not impossible, given the fast development of mobile, cloud services and Artificial Intelligence.
I forecast the yield on the 10 year treasuries to finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%. The Federal Reserve is to hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
China looks interesting within the emerging markets. Brazil also seems to recover driven by accomodative central bank and the recent rise of the price of oil. Russia could do well driven by the realtively higher price of oil. India has excellent growth prospects. South Africa rides the resurgence of Africa.
Basically the BRICS emerging countries and Eastern Europe should do well, even though the Federal Reserve is in a hiking cycle!
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The US stocks rally continues. I forecast 5-10% upside in the main indices DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P500 in 2017.
US technology stocks are basically pricing much growth in the industry, which is not impossible, given the fast development of mobile, cloud services and Artificial Intelligence.
I forecast the yield on the 10 year treasuries to finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%. The Federal Reserve is to hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
China looks interesting within the emerging markets. Brazil also seems to recover driven by accomodative central bank and the recent rise of the price of oil. Russia could do well driven by the realtively higher price of oil. India has excellent growth prospects. South Africa rides the resurgence of Africa.
Basically the BRICS emerging countries and Eastern Europe should do well, even though the Federal Reserve is in a hiking cycle!
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Thursday, February 23, 2017
Federal Reserve, Bonds, Stocks Correction, Chinese Stocks!
Dear Reader,
The Federal Reserve FOMC members seem divided on whether to raise the Federal Funds Rate soon.
I still envisage only one Federal Funds Rate(FFR) hike in 2017. I suspect one hike will be erased from the three currently pencilled in at the March Federal Reserve Meeting.
US stocks are due for correction. I think the correction will ensue when the Federal Reserve hikes the FFR. Most affected are going to be tech stocks, financials, utilities, real estate. I envisage a correction of 10-15% in the the main US indices DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq somewhere in 2017.
Chinese authorities have taken steps to curb the implicit reliance of the market for wealth management products on government guarantee. That could pull funds from the Chinese stock market and dim its excellent prospects. I still forecast, however, the Shanghai Composite will rise by 15-20% in 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The Federal Reserve FOMC members seem divided on whether to raise the Federal Funds Rate soon.
I still envisage only one Federal Funds Rate(FFR) hike in 2017. I suspect one hike will be erased from the three currently pencilled in at the March Federal Reserve Meeting.
US stocks are due for correction. I think the correction will ensue when the Federal Reserve hikes the FFR. Most affected are going to be tech stocks, financials, utilities, real estate. I envisage a correction of 10-15% in the the main US indices DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq somewhere in 2017.
Chinese authorities have taken steps to curb the implicit reliance of the market for wealth management products on government guarantee. That could pull funds from the Chinese stock market and dim its excellent prospects. I still forecast, however, the Shanghai Composite will rise by 15-20% in 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, February 21, 2017
Stocks, the Economy and the Federal Reserve!
Dear Reader,
US PMIs declined in February. I still believe the Federal Reserve will hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
US stocks should not gain more than 10 % in 2017. Small cap stocks look a good bet.
Oil US WTI could fall below 45 USD, once more shale drillers come to market. China stocks should perform well in 2017 with the Shanghai Composite rising more 15-20% in 2017.
Stocks in India should do well as the Indian economy continues growing strongly.
Technology stocks should continue rising driven by mobile, cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US PMIs declined in February. I still believe the Federal Reserve will hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
US stocks should not gain more than 10 % in 2017. Small cap stocks look a good bet.
Oil US WTI could fall below 45 USD, once more shale drillers come to market. China stocks should perform well in 2017 with the Shanghai Composite rising more 15-20% in 2017.
Stocks in India should do well as the Indian economy continues growing strongly.
Technology stocks should continue rising driven by mobile, cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, February 20, 2017
Treasuries, German Bonds, US and Emerging Markets Stocks!
Dear Reader,
US stocks should continue their march higher and rise 5-10% as measured by the main indices DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500 in 2017. Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 should rise by 10-15%.
I make the contrarian call that the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate only once in 2017. I envisage in another case at most two hikes of the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
The yield on the 10 year US treasury is to finish closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
In individual stocks I like BOX, AMD and Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon and Microsoft.
Technology stocks should continue rising driven by the shift to mobile and cloud services. Apple, for a mega cap stock, is undervalued. It is valued as a value stock, when in fact it has significant growth potential.
Emerging markets stocks should rise steadily in the next 2-3 years, despite the Federal Reserve being in a hiking cycle
Gold is to rise circa 10% in 2017. Oil WTI is to finish the year close to 50 USD .
I forecast the yield on the ten year German government bond will finish the year closer to 0.50% than 1.00% and could turn negative in the first half of 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US stocks should continue their march higher and rise 5-10% as measured by the main indices DJIA, Nasdaq, S&P 500 in 2017. Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 should rise by 10-15%.
I make the contrarian call that the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate only once in 2017. I envisage in another case at most two hikes of the Federal Funds Rate in 2017.
The yield on the 10 year US treasury is to finish closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
In individual stocks I like BOX, AMD and Facebook, Apple, Google, Amazon and Microsoft.
Technology stocks should continue rising driven by the shift to mobile and cloud services. Apple, for a mega cap stock, is undervalued. It is valued as a value stock, when in fact it has significant growth potential.
Emerging markets stocks should rise steadily in the next 2-3 years, despite the Federal Reserve being in a hiking cycle
Gold is to rise circa 10% in 2017. Oil WTI is to finish the year close to 50 USD .
I forecast the yield on the ten year German government bond will finish the year closer to 0.50% than 1.00% and could turn negative in the first half of 2017.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
US Small Caps, Tech Stocks, Bund Yields, Treasuries!
Dear Reader,
I expect the main US indices S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq to post gains of 5-8% in 2017. I expect small caps to outperform with the Russell 2000 index rising 10-15% driven by the inward policies of Donald Trump.
I do not expect his tax changes to be sweeping. The US does not have fiscal room to decrease taxes a lot, but a gradual decrease of 5% of the US corporate tax rate could be expected.
Oil is to fall mildly below 50 USD in the first quarter driven by US shale resurgence. Gold is to go up by circa 10% in 2017.
I believe the Federal Reserve will hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017. More hikes, three especially, could plunge the US economy in recession.
Technology stocks should continue their march higher. The smartphone boom is far from over. Most tech stocks are more than fairly valued, but the excesses should be absorbed by growth in the near term.
The EUR/USD should touch parity in 2017, but finish the year closer to 1.05.
I forecast that German 10 year government bond yields will stay low, below 0.50% in 2017, and lower for longer. The eurozone economy needs the stimulus badly still.
The yield on the 10 year treasury should finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
I expect the main US indices S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq to post gains of 5-8% in 2017. I expect small caps to outperform with the Russell 2000 index rising 10-15% driven by the inward policies of Donald Trump.
I do not expect his tax changes to be sweeping. The US does not have fiscal room to decrease taxes a lot, but a gradual decrease of 5% of the US corporate tax rate could be expected.
Oil is to fall mildly below 50 USD in the first quarter driven by US shale resurgence. Gold is to go up by circa 10% in 2017.
I believe the Federal Reserve will hike only once the Federal Funds Rate in 2017. More hikes, three especially, could plunge the US economy in recession.
Technology stocks should continue their march higher. The smartphone boom is far from over. Most tech stocks are more than fairly valued, but the excesses should be absorbed by growth in the near term.
The EUR/USD should touch parity in 2017, but finish the year closer to 1.05.
I forecast that German 10 year government bond yields will stay low, below 0.50% in 2017, and lower for longer. The eurozone economy needs the stimulus badly still.
The yield on the 10 year treasury should finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Monday, January 23, 2017
Bonds, Stocks, Commodities and Foreign Exchange!
Dear Reader,
I think the rally in US treasuries has run its course. I believe the 10 year US treasury yield could finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
US stocks measured by the main indices DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite should post gains of about 5-8% this year.
Some of the bubbles in tech stocks have popped(Twitter, Fuel,DDD, Group On etc.), but generally the rally in tech stocks is still intact driven by smartphones. Artificial Intelligence could prove the next boost for the technology sector.
Chip hardware companies like NVIDIA and AMD stand to benefit from the resurgence of artificial intelligence.
US WTI Oil should remain locked in a tight range of 50-60 USD in 2017. Gold should test 1300 USD but the limit would not be broken decisively.
I believe the yield on benchamrk 10 year German bonds should fall back closer to 0.00% in the first quarter of 2017 driven by European Central Bank bond buying and political uncertainty in the euro area.
EUR/USD should test 1.00 in 2017 and even break below it and should finish the year close to 1.00
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
I think the rally in US treasuries has run its course. I believe the 10 year US treasury yield could finish the year closer to 2.50% than 3.00%.
US stocks measured by the main indices DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite should post gains of about 5-8% this year.
Some of the bubbles in tech stocks have popped(Twitter, Fuel,DDD, Group On etc.), but generally the rally in tech stocks is still intact driven by smartphones. Artificial Intelligence could prove the next boost for the technology sector.
Chip hardware companies like NVIDIA and AMD stand to benefit from the resurgence of artificial intelligence.
US WTI Oil should remain locked in a tight range of 50-60 USD in 2017. Gold should test 1300 USD but the limit would not be broken decisively.
I believe the yield on benchamrk 10 year German bonds should fall back closer to 0.00% in the first quarter of 2017 driven by European Central Bank bond buying and political uncertainty in the euro area.
EUR/USD should test 1.00 in 2017 and even break below it and should finish the year close to 1.00
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, December 20, 2016
BRICS, US Stocks, Oil, Gold and EUR/USD!
Dear Reader,
US stocks are rising after the US Presidential Elections. I think they should continue to rise in 2017, but moderately. There are pockets of overvaluation in tech stocks, but generaly I do not see a fall larger than 30% in the Nasdaq in the near future.
I think the yield on the 10 year US government bond should continue to rise, but moderately. In 2017 the US treasuries yield should stay even below 3.00%.
The yield on 10 year German bunds should test zero(0) again. The ECB's buying of securites is a formidable force.
Oil seems stuck in the 40 to 60 USD range. I do not see US and global inflation rising. There are just too many headwinds, the leading economies are weak.
Gold is an interesting case. I think it could bounce off 1050 USD. The bottom of gold seems near.
The EUR/USD is heading to parity.
US banks and brokerages should continue to rise along with their European markets.
I think emerging markets will perform well in the next five years. The BRICS economies are big, important and already systemic for the world.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
US stocks are rising after the US Presidential Elections. I think they should continue to rise in 2017, but moderately. There are pockets of overvaluation in tech stocks, but generaly I do not see a fall larger than 30% in the Nasdaq in the near future.
I think the yield on the 10 year US government bond should continue to rise, but moderately. In 2017 the US treasuries yield should stay even below 3.00%.
The yield on 10 year German bunds should test zero(0) again. The ECB's buying of securites is a formidable force.
Oil seems stuck in the 40 to 60 USD range. I do not see US and global inflation rising. There are just too many headwinds, the leading economies are weak.
Gold is an interesting case. I think it could bounce off 1050 USD. The bottom of gold seems near.
The EUR/USD is heading to parity.
US banks and brokerages should continue to rise along with their European markets.
I think emerging markets will perform well in the next five years. The BRICS economies are big, important and already systemic for the world.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, November 29, 2016
Stocks, Federal Reserve, ECB, Commodities, EUR/USD!
Dear Reader,
The dust after the US presidential elections has settled. Donald Trump has won.
I personally think that international banks and brokerages will do well. The regulation pressure on the financial services industry will ease.
I believe the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate in December 2016 and December 2017. The US economy will not speed up markedly.
US technology stocks seem a good investment still. Many corners of the tech market are in a bubble, but in general the smartphone/mobile boom is still going. Artificial intelligence seems to be the next big thing, if done correctly. Personally, I do not believe robots will replace humans. I think robots will augment humans, help them do their jobs more efficiently, not replace them.
Nvidia seems a good bet on artificial intelligence. Facebook is slowing into a mature business. Weibo and Match Inc. seem to offer growth opportunities and are generally a good bet.
The European Central Bank will most certainly extend its Asset Purchase Program beyond March 2017. German 10 year government bonds yield should go again to zero in the next few months. The spread with Italy 10 year and Spain 10 year goverment bonds, however, should remain elevated.
Gold, according to me, is close to finding a bottom. Oil seems stuck between 40 and 60 USD in the near term.
EUR/USD should reach 0.90 in the first few months of 2017, bottom out and the euro should slowly start to aprreciate from then on.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The dust after the US presidential elections has settled. Donald Trump has won.
I personally think that international banks and brokerages will do well. The regulation pressure on the financial services industry will ease.
I believe the Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate in December 2016 and December 2017. The US economy will not speed up markedly.
US technology stocks seem a good investment still. Many corners of the tech market are in a bubble, but in general the smartphone/mobile boom is still going. Artificial intelligence seems to be the next big thing, if done correctly. Personally, I do not believe robots will replace humans. I think robots will augment humans, help them do their jobs more efficiently, not replace them.
Nvidia seems a good bet on artificial intelligence. Facebook is slowing into a mature business. Weibo and Match Inc. seem to offer growth opportunities and are generally a good bet.
The European Central Bank will most certainly extend its Asset Purchase Program beyond March 2017. German 10 year government bonds yield should go again to zero in the next few months. The spread with Italy 10 year and Spain 10 year goverment bonds, however, should remain elevated.
Gold, according to me, is close to finding a bottom. Oil seems stuck between 40 and 60 USD in the near term.
EUR/USD should reach 0.90 in the first few months of 2017, bottom out and the euro should slowly start to aprreciate from then on.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Wednesday, November 2, 2016
US Stocks, Eurozone and US Bonds, Gold and Oil!
Dear Reader,
The US election date is looming. US stocks are in danger of a correction of less than 10% fall from current highs. Few months away, however, stocks seem a good investment still. Money seems to be flowing in US stocks especially. They have become some sort of a safe heaven.
I do not see technology stocks suffering a large correction. Not before the smartphone boom is over, which actually is not that far off. In the long run, however, information technology is still a good investment.
I think the Federal reserve will hike the federal funds rate in December. The yield on the 10 year US treasury should go to 1.9%. Eurozone benchmark 10 year bunds should stay close to 0.00%. The ECB buying power is simply too great. The yields on Spanish and Italian 10 year bonds should fall closer to 1.00% again mainly because of ECB.
Oil seems stuck in a range. It should finish the year close to 50 USD. Gold is an interesting case. It rises in the run up to the US elections, but it should stop rising thereafter.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The US election date is looming. US stocks are in danger of a correction of less than 10% fall from current highs. Few months away, however, stocks seem a good investment still. Money seems to be flowing in US stocks especially. They have become some sort of a safe heaven.
I do not see technology stocks suffering a large correction. Not before the smartphone boom is over, which actually is not that far off. In the long run, however, information technology is still a good investment.
I think the Federal reserve will hike the federal funds rate in December. The yield on the 10 year US treasury should go to 1.9%. Eurozone benchmark 10 year bunds should stay close to 0.00%. The ECB buying power is simply too great. The yields on Spanish and Italian 10 year bonds should fall closer to 1.00% again mainly because of ECB.
Oil seems stuck in a range. It should finish the year close to 50 USD. Gold is an interesting case. It rises in the run up to the US elections, but it should stop rising thereafter.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
Tuesday, October 11, 2016
Technology, US Tech Stocks, Eurozone Bonds, Gold and Oil!
Dear Reader,
The Federal Reserve looks like it is about to hike the Federal Funds Rate in December 2016.
Personally, I think gold is undervalued. It could go to 1400 USD before the end of the year, especially if Trumps wins the Presidency. Good play is ABX and other large cap gold stocks.
Oil will trade in a range between 40 and 60 USD until the end of the year. US Stocks could suffer a minor fall, circa 5%, from current levels(DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq) but should bounce back.
The technological boom is ongoing and is not about to top soon. Technology changes our lives constantly. Even if the Nasdaq falls 30% from current levels, let's say, it still will bounce back and the future looks bright for technology(AI, cloud, software development, communication etc.).
A good way to play the current boom is with chat apps like Line(LN), Facebook(FB) and Weibo(WB). One has to be careful though- they are quite volatile.
Eurozone bonds yields, bunds in particular, should remain at low levels. The ECB looks like it is about to expand its asset purchase program, which should keep yields in check.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
The Federal Reserve looks like it is about to hike the Federal Funds Rate in December 2016.
Personally, I think gold is undervalued. It could go to 1400 USD before the end of the year, especially if Trumps wins the Presidency. Good play is ABX and other large cap gold stocks.
Oil will trade in a range between 40 and 60 USD until the end of the year. US Stocks could suffer a minor fall, circa 5%, from current levels(DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq) but should bounce back.
The technological boom is ongoing and is not about to top soon. Technology changes our lives constantly. Even if the Nasdaq falls 30% from current levels, let's say, it still will bounce back and the future looks bright for technology(AI, cloud, software development, communication etc.).
A good way to play the current boom is with chat apps like Line(LN), Facebook(FB) and Weibo(WB). One has to be careful though- they are quite volatile.
Eurozone bonds yields, bunds in particular, should remain at low levels. The ECB looks like it is about to expand its asset purchase program, which should keep yields in check.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!
Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!
Kind regards,
Petar Posledovich
LinkedIn Bio:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/petar-posledovich-5236123/
I recently worked for almost 3 years as a Senior Expert at United Bulgarian Bank AD, part of KBC Group solely doing Market and Counterparty Risk. Before that I worked for 2.5 years as Chief Expert, Market and Counterparty Risk in DSK Bank, part of OTP Bank.
I have interned for 2.5 months with Deutsche Bank AG, worked for 8 months as Market and Counterparty Risk Manager at ING Wholesale Banking and for 1.4 years as Investment Associate at Unicredit Bulbank AD, Bulgaria.
Since November 2010 until July 2017, I was a Research Analyst at the Bulgarian National Bank, where I analyzed financial markets for managing Bulgaria's foreign currency reserves in an efficient manner.
I hold a Master of Science in Applied Mathematics(Financial Mathematics) and BA in Economics from Sofia University 'St. Kliment Ohridski'
I have done 1.5 year of graduate studies at the University of Constance, Germany and Erazmus academic exchange year studies at the Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Germany.
I am a Licensed Investment Consultant by the Bulgarian Financial Supervision Commission
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