Buying the dip in stocks, selling the rally in bonds?

Dear Reader,

I still believe the main US stock market indices(DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq) will post 5-8% gains in 2015.

I believe now buying the dip is a good strategy. Social networks Facebook, LinkedIn and Twitter are undervalued. GoPro and FitBit offer large value, have high upside potential.

I still think US 10 year  treasuries yield will touch 2.70% in 2015. I still believe EUR/USD will touch 0.90 in 2015.  The 10 year German bunds yield will stay below 1.5% in 2015, but will touch 1.00% in 2015.

I now think the DAX, FTSE, CAC will post 10% in 2015, which is a revision of my 15% 2015 gain forecast made some time ago.

I believe USD/JPY will touch 110 in 2015.

I forecast gold will fall towards 800 USD in 2-3 years.
Oil WTI will rise towards 60USD.
 OIL majors Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP, Shell, Total offer significant value.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!

Conflicts of Interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies and commodities mentioned in the blogpost or posts on social networks.

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Foreign Exchange!

Dear Reader,

I still believe the main US stock market indices(DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq) will post 5-8% gains in 2015.

I believe Facebook, LinekdIn, Twitter and Google are undervalued. Oil majors like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Total offer good value. Apple is fully valued.

US bank majors Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are undervalued.

I believe the yield on US 10 year treasuries will touch 2.7% in 2015. The Federal Reserve will hike the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25% in September AND December 2015.

I believe the German 10 year bunds(government bonds) yield will stay below 1.5% in 2015. The eurozone 'periphery' government bonds(Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece) will sell off towards year end. I expect the yield on 10 year government bonds of Italy and Spain to touch 3.0% in 2015.

I expect oil(WTI) to recover and touch 60 USD by the end of 2015.
I forecast gold will fall towards 800 USD in 2-3 years.

I forecast EUR/USD will head towards 0.90 in 2015. USD/JPY will touch 110 in 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Bonds, Stocks, Commodities, Foreign Exchange!

Dear Reader,

I still expect major US stock market indices to post 5-8% gains in 2015. US 10 year treasury yield should touch 2.7% in 2015. The Fed will hike in September AND December.

I forecast the German 10 year bund  yield will stay below 1.5%. Gold should fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.

Oil looks undervalued at the moment. I think it will get to 60 USD by year end.

Oil majors stocks Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch, BP look undervalued.

US bank majors JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs look undervalued.

I forecast EUR/USD will touch 0.90 in 2015, while USD/YEN could fall to 110.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stocks, Bonds, FX and Commodities!

Dear Reader,




I still expect US stock market indices to post gains of 5-8% in 2015.
US 10 year treasuries to touch 2.7% in 2015. I expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates in September AND December.




I forecast German 10 year bunds yield to stay below 1.5% in 2015. I expect Spanish, Italian, Portuguese and Irish government bonds to sell off. I expect Spanish and Italian 10 year government bonds yield to reach 3.0% in 2015.




Stocks: LinkedIn(LNKD), Facebook(FB), Twitter(TWTR), GoPro(GPRO) and FitBit(FIT) seem undervalued. Oil majors Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Conoco Phillips deliver good value at these levels. Major Eurozone banks seem undervalued.




I expect Oil(WTI) to recover to about 70 USD in 2015. I expect gold to fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.


I expect EUR/USD to touch 0.90 in 2015 and USD/JPY to fall back to 110 in 2015.










Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stocks, Bonds, FX, Commodities and Economic Forecasts!

Dear Reader,

I am of the opinion that US major stock indices will post 5-8% gains in 2015. Major European stock indices(DAX, FTSE, CAC) will post 10-15% gains in 2015.

German 10 year government bonds yield to remain below 1.5% in 2015. US 10 year treasury yields to touch 2.7% in 2015. I expect the Federal Reserve to hike the Federal Funds Rate in September AND December by 0.25%.

Oil looks like a good value at 50 USD. I forecast many times before that gold will fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years, so I am not suprised by the fall of the price of gold in the recent days.

Stocks: I believe Microsoft(MSFT), GOPRO(GPRO), LinkedIN(LNKD) and FitBit(FIT) are undervalued at these levels.

I believe the US economy will grow less than 2.5% in 2015 and the eurozone will grow by less than 1.6% in 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stocks, Bonds, Currencies and Commodities!

Dear Reader,

I still expect US 10 year treasuries yield to reach 2.7% in 2015 and the Federal reserve to hike the Federal funds rate both in September AND December 2015 by 0.25%.

I still think Germany 10 year government bonds yield will remain below 1.5% in 2015. Spanish, Italian and other eurozone 'periphery' bonds to sell off. 10 year Italian and Spanish government bonds yield to hit 3.0% in 2015.

I still think US stocks should rise 5-8% in 2015 measured by the main indices.

I think FitBit(FIT), GoPro(GPRO) and Microsoft(MSFT) have a lot of upside potential and should outperform the main indices.

In the longer run Google(GOOGL) should do fine as well.

I stick with my forecast that gold will fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.

EUR/USD should reach 0.90 in 2015. USD/JPY should revert to 110 in 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Bonds, Stocks, Foreign Exchange and Commodities!

Dear Reader,

I still forecast US stock indices will grow 5-8% in 2015.

10 year German government bonds yields should remain below 1.5% in 2015. I expect the yields on Spanish and Italian ten year government bonds to reach 3.00% in 2015.

I forecast that the 10 year US treasury yield will touch 2.70% in 2015.

EUR/USD to target 0.90 in 2015. Gold to sell off to 800 USD in 2-3 years.
Oil to remain between 50 and 70 USD in 2015. I am undecided on a direction for oil.



Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Individual Stocks and Bonds!

Dear Reader,

I expect German 10 year government bonds  yields to remain below 1.5% in 2015.
US 10 year treasuries to touch 2.7% in 2015 driven by the TWO Fed rate hikes I forecast in September and December.

The EUR/USD to reach 0.90 in 2015. Gold to fall to 800 USD in two-three years.

My forecast in a twitter post that Fitbit(FIT) is undervalued came true and the stock rallied strongly.
I forecast Microsoft(MSTF) will rally along with the introduction of Windows 10.

I forecast Spanish and Italian 10 year government bonds yields to reach 3.5% in 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Financial Forecasts, Results and Update!

Dear Reader,

I forecast the 10 year German government bonds yield will stay below 1.5% in 2015. EUR/USD to target 0.90 in 2015. US stocks sould post gains of 5-8% in 2015.

My forecast that the eurozone 'periphery' government bonds(Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland etc.) will sell off came true recently. My forecast that German 10 year bunds will sell off also came true. See earlier posts

I forecast gold will sell off to 800 USD in 2-3 years.

The eurozone 'periphery' government bonds(Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland etc.) sell off will continue. Spanish and Italian 10 year government bonds yields will touch 3.00% in 2015.

US 10 year treasury yield will touch 2.70% in 2015.

The Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate in September AND December by 0.25%.

I forecast the US and eurozone GDP will grow less than 2.3% and 1.7% year on year respectively


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Economic and Financial Forecasts!

Dear Reader,

I forecast that the German 10 year bunds yield will stay bellow 1.5% in 2015. US 10 year treasury yield is to target 2.7% in 2015. EUR/USD to reach 0.90 in 2015. Gold to fall to 800 USD in 2-3 years.

I forecast the US economy will grow below 2.3% in 2015 and the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 0.25 in September AND December 2015.

US stock markets measured by the main indices to rise 5-8% in 2015. European major stock markets(DAX, FTSE, CAC) to rise 10% in 2015. I forecast the eurozone to grow below 1.7% year on year in 2015.

I forecast Spanish and Italian 10 year bonds yields to reach 3.00% in 2015.
IF Greece defaults, Spanish and Italian 10 year bonds yields can touch 5.5%!


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Forecast Results, Bonds, Stocks, Commodities and Foreign Exchange!

Dear Reader,

10 year German bunds yield fulfilled my forecast of 1.00% in 2015 this week. I expect 10 year German bunds yield to stay below 1.5% in 2015.

My forecast that the DAX will enter a correction(a fall of 10%) also came true. I expect the main European indices(FTSE, CAC, DAX) to post gains of around 10% in 2015.

I forecast the main US stock indices(DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq) will rise 5-8% in 2015.

Gold is to target 800 USD in 2-3 years time. EUR/USD to target 0.90 in 2015.

US 10 year treasury yield to touch 2.70% in 2015.

My forecast(see preious posts) that oil will bounce from around 40 USD also came true. But I forecast bounces at 80 and 70 USD :-), so I will not commit with a forecast for now.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Bunds Forecast, Stocks, Bonds, FX and Commodities!

Dear Reader,

My forecast that German 10 year bunds yields will touch 1.00% in 2015 almost came true yesterday. I stick with it. I believe the German 10 year bunds yields will not go over 1.00% by much in 2015.

I am still of the opinion that US stocks will post a gain of 5-8% measured by the main indices.

I forecast that the Federal Reserve will raise the Federal Funds Rate in September.

I forecast gold will tumble to 800 USD in 2-3 years. As I predicted, European stocks largely suffered a 10% correction from the highs reached in 2015. I believe DAX, CAC and FTSE will post around 10% gains for 2015.

 I still believe EUR/USD will touch 0.90 in 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

US and China Stocks, Eurozone Bonds and Gold!

Dear Reader,

I remain with my new view that the main US stock indices will rise 5-8% in 2015. There is a containable tech bubble in some public stocks and many nonpublic stocks. Many mutual funds and institutional investors that invested in the new tech 'stars' will get burned, but this should not derail the US stock bull market.

I forecast that the yield on the 10 year German government bond will reach 1.00% in 2015 and the EUR/USD will reach 0.90 in 2015. My forecast of USD/YEN at 120 already came true(see earlier posts), so I am still weighing the situation for a 'hard' view on this market.

The intensive bull market in Chinese stocks should continue. The sell off in 'periphery' eurozone government bonds is bound to continue.

I forecast gold will fall to 800 in 2-3 years.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Change of View on US Stock Market!

Dear Sir or Madam,

I am reversing my forecast that US stocks, measured by the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, will fall respectively 20% and 30% in 2015.

Now I forecast that US equities measured by the main indices(S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq) will grow by 6-8% a year in the next 2-3 years.

I still think there is a bubble in nonpublic tech stocks. Some of the public tech stocks, however, have already corrected. I still think some mutual funds and other institutional investors will loose a lot of money, but that event should be a controlled one.

I still think 10 year German government bonds yield will reach 1.00% in 2015. I confirm my forecast of the EUR/USD reaching 0.90 in 2015. Eurozone 'periphery' government bonds will continue their sell off. I forecast gold will sell off sharply to 800 USD within 2-3 years.

My forecast that the German DAX will sell off 10% has already come true, so now I forecast the DAX Index will finish up 15% for 2015.


Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Bonds and Stocks sell-off!

Dear Reader,

I am still of the opinion that US stocks will sell off 20%(S&P 500) from current levels in 2015. The Nasdaq Composite will sell off more than 30%.

Nonpublic and many public technology and biotechnology companies are in a bubble. Some of the valuations and reports are ridiculous.

The German 10 year government bond yield will reach 1.0% in 2015. The other eurozone government bonds will sell off as well. US 10 year treasury yield will reach 2.7%(as forecasted in earlier posts) in 2015. The Federal Reserve, in my opinion, will raise rates in September. US GDP will grow not more than 2.5% year on year in 2015.

Gold will reach 1050 in 2015. EUR/USD, despite its recent bounce, should reach 0.90 in 2015.

The German DAX Index is on the verge of a 10% correction, as I predicted in earlier posts.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Bonds Sell-off Prediction, Stocks, Commodities and FX!

Dear Reader,

My predictions(see earlier posts) that 10 year German government bonds yield will reach 0.7% in 2015 came true on 7 May 2015. Yields fell from that lofty level through today. My new target for the 10 year German government bond yield is 1.00% in 2015.

I predict that the sell off of eurozone 'periphery' government bonds will accelerate. 10 year Spanish and Italian government bond yields will reach 2.5% in 2015.

I still expect US main stock indices to sell off 20% in 2015 measured by the S&P 500. The Nasdaq will sell more than 30%.

Gold will target 1050 in 2015. EUR/USD will target 0.90 in 2015.

Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Stock and Bonds!

Dear Reader,

German government bonds sold off this week. I stick with my forecast that the yield on the 10 year German government bonds will get to 0.7% in 2015.

I still think US stocks will correct 20% in 2015. The DAX lost about 7% from its peak recently and as you might remember I predicted a 10% percent correction, so the DAX should fall a bit more in 2015.
I am still of the opinion that eurozone government bonds are a HUGE bubble and they should sell off hard in the next 1-2 years.

I forecast gold will get to 1050 in 2015 and the EUR/USD will target 0.9 in 2015.



Disclaimer: This article and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions  expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!