Apollo Global Management manages 751 billion USD of assets of which 616 billion USD in private credit, which makes Apollo number one in private credit, worldwide.
If the tariffs imposed by the US President Donald Trump's presidential administration cause a recession, interest on high-yield credits and high-yield bonds will shoot up. Money center banks and even regional banks even as we speak balk at lending at 7 % to 14 % interest rates, the usual target of large private credit investment managers as Apollo. In case of a recession and higher rates on distressed loans banks will even further withdraw from lending to mid-market risky firms. This will be a golden opportunity for Apollo to expand its private credit market share, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates
If the US tariffs do not cause a recession, Apollo will continue to ride high on the private credit wave. As stated above with 616 billion USD Apollo is the largest alternative credit manager in the world. Apollo displaces banks in lending to mid-cap corporate at rates of 7 % to 14 %. These high yield borrowers constantly are in need of capital and Apollo provides capital to these risky borrowers to finance their leveraged growth. If there is no recession, the delinquency rates of mid-cap risky borrows will remain stable and low and this will grease Apollo's private credit business to even new and higher highs.
In short, the US tariffs will provide a golden opportunity for Apollo to unlock tens of billions of USD of additional value, in Wolfteam Ltd.'s view. In both scenarios of a recession or continued economic growth.
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