If tariffs cause a recession, this will hurt private equity firms leveraged buyouts investments. On the other hand, however, alternative asset management firms will gain market share in a recession, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.
The cost of servicing the debt will go up, which will decrease the return on investment of private equity firms, because their investments will be discounted at a higher interest rate.
In addition, the private credit business lines of the biggest alternative asset management firms will incur losses if tariffs cause a recession, which could make the yields on high-yield bonds rise substantially.
In addition, if interest rates shoot up the real estate investments of the leading alternative investment management firms will fall in value, because they will be discounted at higher interest rates and thus the value of real estate investments will fall in value.
On the flip side, however, alternative investment management firms will be able to buy up assets at distressed values and gain market share at the expense of corporate and investment banks.
At 7 % to 14 % interest for loans to mid market firms in recession times only private credit business arms of alternative asset management firms can provide financing and thus private equity firms will gain market share.
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