Disclaimer:

Disclaimer: The blog posts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is". The blog is stocks analysis and valuation, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Artificial Intelligence, AI, deep-learning focused. Independent, unbiased AI insights. Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blog posts on this blog and posts on social networks. Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blog post and posts on social networks! The blog is property of Wolfteam Ltd. www.wolfteamedge.com Respectfully yours, Petar Posledovich

Sunday, June 1, 2025

Private Equity Firms Are Vulnerable To An AI Downturn

 


All of the world's largest alternative investment managers like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC etc. have invested heavily in artificial intelligence, AI via outright AI technology company investments, data centers, delivery centers, energy infrastructure and other artificial intelligence, AI related infrastructure via their private equity, real estate and private credit investment management units.

Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC and most other alternative asset managers are exposed to an artificial intelligence, AI downturn as the recent DeepSeek and US tariffs invoked stock market drop clearly showed. Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC and other publicly listed alternative asset managers lost around 30 % during the recent sell off, more than the fall of S&P 500 and even more than the circa 23 % correction of the Nasdaq Composite.

This is natural since Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC etc. are basically at the moment a leveraged play on the artificial intelligence, AI technology. Via their private equity businesses Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC put up an average of 30 % to 40 % of the equity needed to purchase an artificial intelligence, AI technology company and borrow the rest via the high yield bonds and lending markets. Thus creating financial leverage which magnifies the upside, but also marks for higher losses, when the market turns down or the particular company they have invested in looses value.

As a result Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC's stock market capitalization has not recovered to their end year 2024 high and is circa 23 % below that level. Actually Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC's stock market capitalization has recovered less than that of the AI hyper scalers like Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon or less than most of the Magnificent 7 artificial intelligence, AI companies Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, NVIDIA and Tesla.

However the slow recovery of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC's stock market capitalization makes Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC  even more intrinsically undervalued, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Because we are currently witnessing the fourth industrial revolution driven by artificial intelligence, AI according to many market observers, leading technology multi billionaires and Wall Street both equity research and fixed income analysts. 

No comments: