Blue Owl Raises 1.4 Billion USDs To Pay Off Redemptions

 

Blue Owl Capital Inc or Blue Owl announced last week it holds clients redemptions from its OBDC II fund.

OBDC II had a redemption limit of 5 % a month. Blue Owl announced last week it would pay off 30 % to investors in OBDC II instead.

The Blue Owl 1.4 billions USD asset sales is to four leading North American public pension and insurance investors.

With the 1.4 billion USD asset sale Blue Owl aims to calm investors as to the state of the private credit asset managers and especially their exposure to software companies.

18 % of private equity, private credit deal making in 2025 consisted of technology companies.

As a consequence of software and technology exposure value the leading private equity, private credit markets companies' market capitalization fell circa 30 % from their recent peaks  

Blue Owl should recover along with the rest of the technology sectors in 2-3 years, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

 

What Would It Take For A Large Correction In Private Equity, Private Credit Stocks?

 

The stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc., the largest private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset managers have declined around 30 % from their recent all time highs.

What would it take for their stock market capitalization to fall even further?

A bursting of a possible artificial intelligence, AI bubble could cause and even more dramatic fall in the stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc., the largest private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset manages.

Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group, etc. and most other large and medium size private private equity and private credit companies have invested large part of their assets raised in the last 7 years in artificial intelligence, AI technology large and mostly mid-sized companies private equity buyouts, have given private credit loans to fund those buyouts and lent directly to artificial intelligence, AI technology large and mostly mid-sized companies, have financed via their real estate assets artificial intelligence, AI data centers builds and have financed via their infrastructure assets under management energy companies providing energy for artificial intelligence, AI companies.

In short, if an artificial intelligence, AI bubble bursts the Nasdaq Composite could fall 62 % or more from its recent all time high and the stock market capitalization of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group etc. could fall more than 50 % from their recent all time highs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates

If the technology of artificial intelligence, AI recovers from its current slump and goes on to increase individuals, corporations and governments' productivity dramatically and turns out really to be the fourth industrial revolution and changes positively our society, the stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT, Partners Group could recover in a dramatic fashion form their current decline and rise much above their recent all time highs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Is This The Bursting Of A Private Equity, Private Credit Bubble?

 

No.

One of the leading private credit and private equity firms in the world Blue Owl holding redemptions in a 600 million USD retail focused fund, the First Brands and TriColor bankruptcies earlier are a temporary setback for private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

The stocks of the globally leading private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure investment firms Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle Ares, Blue Owl, CVC sank by between 5 % and 10 % on Thursday and Friday after Blue Owl announced it is holding redemptions in one of its funds, effectively freezing investors out of their money for a short lock-up period, gating that is. However, a faster alternative redemption schedule was offered by Blue Owl whereby investors get 30 % of their money quicker.

The main driver of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc. private equity, private credit, real estate and infrastructure asset managers' stocks are their hundreds of billions of USDs investment of their funds raised in the last 7 years in artificial intelligence, AI. 

And artificial intelligence, AI's boom will most likely continue in the next 3-4 years, despite the current slowdown, correction and fret about artificial, AI coding automation on Software As A Service firms, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

In short, the stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle Ares, Blue Owl, CVC could fall circa 40 - 45 % from their recent peaks, but they will most likely recover along the AI technology giants stocks of Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft. In the mid-ter 3 to 5 years.

 

Blue Owl Holds Redemptions From One Of Its Funds. Valuations Scenario Analysis Of Private Equity, Private Credit Companies

 

Blue Owl, the leading global private equity, private credit, real estate alternative asset manager announced it is holding redemptions from one of its retail funds Blue Owl Capital Corp. II (OBDC II), a private, retail-facing debt fund, and instead will return capital through periodic distributions funded by loan repayments, asset sales or other strategic transactions.

The stocks of the leading global private equity, private credit, real estate, infrastructure asset managers Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, CVC fell most more than 5 % yesterday along with 6 % fall of Blue Owl's stock.

Some investors and analysts say this holding of redemptions of one of Blue Owl's funds might be a precursor to a financial crisis much like the holding of redemptions of two structured credit funds of Bear Stearns and BNP Paribas was for the great financial crises and Great Recession of 2008/2009.

There are three possible scenarios:

1) Quick recovery scenario. The stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC are down circa 30 % from their recent peaks in the last rolling year. The stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC could fall more, down more than 45 % from their recent peaks.

However, the stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC would stage a recovery if things brighten up and it becomes clear that the Blue Owl, Tricolor and First Brands recently were one off events and the stocks of  Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC would rise substantially from their lows and surpass their peaks by high margin on the artificial intelligence, AI boom and the money that Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC have invested in AI companies.

Probability of this scenario is 40 %

2) Muddling through. It becomes clear that  Blue Owl, Tricolor and First Brands are serious cases, Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC loose tens of billions of USDs of their assets under management on these and other private credit bankruptcies. After some time the stocks of Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC will recover some lost ground but remain below their peaks in 2-3 years from now. Here a positive could be if the AI boom continues and Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC make some of the lost money on AI technology companies investments.

The probability of this scenario is 40 % 

 3) Full blown credit, financial and economic crisis.

The  Blue Owl, Tricolor and First Brands events are followed by many other bankruptcies. The credit delinquencies spread from Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc. private equity, private credit, real estate asset managers to the banks JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, UBS, Deutsche Bank, Barclays etc. banks which have financed the private equity giants. Banks stop lending, people cut down on consumption, firms decrease drastically investments and the financial crisis becomes economic and  global and deep. Much as in 2008/2009. Large banks failures are possible.

The probability of this scenario is 20 %.

The most likely scenario is slow recovery for Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC etc. stocks and business, but recovery nonetheless, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates. 

Partners Group Holding AG. The Private Equity Firm Valuation

 

Partners Group Holding AG or Partners Group, the globally fourth largest listed private equity, infrastructure, real estate and private credit asset manager has invested large part of its recently raised assets in artificial intelligence, AI technology companies leveraged buyouts, artificial intelligence, AI data center firms acquisitions as part of its infrastructure business, artificial intelligence, AI data centers as part of its real estate business and given out billions of USDs in loans to artificial intelligence, AI mid sized technology firms as part of its private credit asset management division.

In a base case, Partners Group's intrinsic value is 39 billion USDs, compared with Partner's Group's current market capitalization of 25.31 billion Swiss Francs on the Swiss Stock Exchange or 32.903 billion USDs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Partners Group operates 184.9 billion USDs of assets under management as of end 2025.

Partners Group reported net profit of 578.2 million CHFs on revenue of 1.1199 billion of CHFs in the first half of 2025. 

If artificial intelligence, AI lives up to the most optimistic forecasts of Wall Street research analysts and investors and Silicon Valley technologists and investors and artificial intelligence, AI increases humanity's productivity dramatically, Partners Group's market capitalization could rise to 74 billion USDs.

If on the other hand, the current artificial intelligence, AI boom turns into a bust and the Nasdaq Composite falls more than 62 % from its all time high, Partners Group market capitalization could fall to 14 billion USDs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Partners Group, along with the other leading private, equity, real estate, private credit and infrastructure asset managers Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, EQT etc. is currently to a large extent an indirect investment in the artificial intelligence, AI boom. 

 

EQT AB. The Private Equity Firm Valuation

EQT AB Group or EQT is a Stockholm, Sweden global, leading alternative asset manager.

EQT operates 270 billion EURs of assets under management of which 141 billion EURs are fee paying assets under management. 

EQT's current market capitalization is 33.78 billion EURs.

EQT's net income for 2025 was 728 million EURs on 2.632 billion EURs revenue.

EQT has invested large part of its recently raised private equity assets in artificial intelligence, AI technology firms leveraged buyouts, its recently raised real estate assets into artificial intelligence, AI related data centers.

EQT is is undervalued in a base case scenario, namely AI adoption and productivity increase growing moderately, with intrinsic value of EQT of 39 billion EURs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

If AI lives up to the most optimistic forecasts of Wall Street research analysts and investors and of Silicon Valley technologists and investors and changes deeply our world by profoundly increasing humanity's productivity, EQT's market capitalization could rise to 59 billion EURs.

If on the other hand, the current artificial intelligence, AI boom turns into a bust and the Nasdaq Composite falls more than 62 % from its recent all time high, EQT's market capitalization could fall to 12 billion EURs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

In short, EQT's value is deeply intertwined with artificial intelligence, AI's development, like basically all other leading private equity, real estate, private credit, infrastructure alternative asset managers like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Ares, Blue Owl, CVC, etc.'s fate. Because the leading alternative asset managers have to a large extent underwritten the current artificial intelligence, AI boom.

Key operational metrics
Distributions to shareholders€m 2025 2024
Dividends 461 373
Share repurchases 296 118
Total 757 4912025 2024
Gross fund investments (€bn ) 16 22
Gross fund exits (€bn ) 19 11
FAUM (€bn , end of period ) 141 136
Total AUM (€bn , end of period ) 270 269
FTE (end of period) 1,863 1,886

Consolidated income statement 
The below table shows figures according to IFRS Accounting Standards . For adjusted
figures corresponding to the internal reporting please refer to Note 1 and section
”Alternative performance measures (APM)”.€m Note H2 2025 H2 2024 2025 2024
Management fees 1,060 1,016 2,173 2,053
Fee-related performance revenues 9 0 10 0
Transaction, advisory, and other fees 64 41 100 51
Fee-related revenue 1,133 1,057 2,283 2,104
Carried interest and investment income 3 227 364 349 549
Total revenue 1 1,360 1,421 2,632 2,653
Personnel expenses -438 -424 -882 -844
Acquisition related personnel expenses -39 -97 -96 -228
Other operating expenses 4 -142 -138 -273 -257
Total operating expenses -618 -659 -1,251 -1,329
Operating profit before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) 741 762 1,382 1,324
Depreciation and amortization -41 -34 -79 -71
Amortization of acquisition related intangible assets -171 -183 -350 -365
Operating profit (EBIT) 529 545 953 888
Net financial income and expenses -67 -0 -57 11
whereof change in fair value of contingent consideration - 16 - 16
Profit before income tax (EBT) 462 545 896 899
Income taxes -80 -51 -168 -123
Net income 382 494 728 776
Attributable to
- Owners of the parent company 382 494 728 776
- Non-controlling interests - - - -
Earnings per share , €
before dilution 0.326 0.418 0.619 0.656
after dilution 0.325 0.418 0.618 0.656
Average number of shares
before dilution 1,173,315,881 1,181,750,349 1,176,544,588 1,183,153,914
after dilution 1,175,331,390 1,182,762,833 1,178,560,097 1,184,166,399 

 

 

Data Storage Companies Seem To Be The Current Momentum Stocks

 

Micron Technology Inc, SanDisk Corp, Western Digital Corp, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC and other data storage technology companies seem to be the current positive momentum stocks. Stocks that in recent time, the rolling year have made the greatest gains that is.

With the pending near 600 billion USDs investments in 2026 alone in AI centers by Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta alone the demand for data storage products like SSD hard discs, hard discs, memory storage cards and other data center products is jumping by more than 50 % year on year. The net profit margin on data storage products is also rising by 50 % - 70 % a year.

And companies like  Micron Technology Inc, SanDisk Corp, Western Digital Corp, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC etc. data storage companies stand to benefit enormously.

Micron Technology Inc, SanDisk Corp, Western Digital Corp, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC are all short-term to mid-term undervalued, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates. 

Alphabet Valuation In A Positive And A Negative AI Scenario

 

Alphabet Inc, Google owner's market capitalization is 3.9 trillion USDs currently.

If artificial intelligence, AI performs to the most optimistic forecasts of Wall Street analysts and investors and Silicon Valley investors and technologists Alphabet's market capitalization could rise to 9.5 trillion USDs.

If artificial intelligence, AI on the other hand turns out to be a bubble and spectacularly bursts dragging to some extent the global economy with it and the Nasdaq Compostite falls more than 62 % from its all time high, Alphabet's market capitalization could fall to 900 billion USDs, accordin to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

There is another option. Technology companies are usually asset light. Even with their cloud business Alphabet, Amazon and Microsoft do not invest in hard or soft assets too large a proportion of their net income and retained income, relative to mining companies, industrials, consumer discretionary, consumer staples or financials even.

With the huge artificial intelligence, AI data-center build out going currently, whereby Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta could invest in hard data center hardware a sum exceeding 500 billion USDs in 2026 alone, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta could be re rated more like a hardware company like Apple.

Apple trades at Price/Sales ratio of 3, while Alphabet and Microsoft trade at a Price/Sales ratio of close to 10. Amazon at Price/Sales at close to 4 and Meta at Price/Sales close to 9.

In short, Alphabet's valuation could fall only because it is planning investing more than 150 billion USD in 2026 alone as excerpted from its fourth quarter 2025 earnings statement:

Alphabet: 'To meet customer demand and capitalize on the growing opportunities we have ahead of us, our 2026 CapEx investments are anticipated to be in the range of $175 to $185 billion.”

CVC Valuation In A Positive And A Negative AI Scenario

CVC Capital Partners PLC or CVC, one of the largest private equity, real estate, private credit and infrastructure alternative asset managers globally with 201 billion EURs of assets under management and one of the largest in Europe in particular has invested heavily its assets raised in the last 5 years in artificial intelligence, AI technology companies via leveraged buyouts, AI data centers via private credit lending and real estate investing and energy companies and data center assets via its infrastructure investments.

CVC's market capitalization is 13.63 billion EURs currently.

If artificial intelligence, AI lives up to the most positive forecasts of Wall Street equity research analysts and investors and Silicon Valley technologists and investors, CVC's market capitalization could reach 57 billion EURs.

If on the other hand, artificial intelligence, AI flops and an artificial intelligence, AI multi trillion USDs possible bubble bursts and the Nasdaq Composite Index falls more than 62 % from its recent all time high, CVC's market capitalization could fall to 7.3 billion EURs.

The probable artificial intelligence, AI technology IPO wave with multi billion and even trillions of USDs valued companies like Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI going public in 2026 could bring about a flurry of deal activity enabling CVC and other leading private equity, private credit and real estate asset managers to offload their investments at sky high valuations and values. A similar flurry of IPOs in particular and M&A activity in 2021 was followed by Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Blue Owl, Ares, CVC etc. and other leading private equity and private credit companies doubling their market capitalization on the back of successful deals driven by the 2021 low interest rate environment and money creation by the Federal Reserve which along with forecast large technology wave due to the possibility of working more productivelt from home drove technology and other companies valuation to very high values and Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Carlyle, Blue Owl, Ares, CVC etc. private equity companies were able to make many successful deals values in trillions of USD.

In short, CVC's intrinsic value is 32 billion EURs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

 

Can A Dovish Federal Reserve And AI Productivity Gains Lead To A 2026 US Stocks Bull Market?

Many Wall Street equity research analysts tout the possible inclination of the Federal Reserve to lower the Federal Funds Rate and thus interest levels in the US economy under incoming Governor of The Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh and realization of strong productivity gains due to artificial intelligence, AI as a reason for the S&P 500 to clock in a fourth year of the ongoing bull market.

Yes, lower interest rateswill provide cheap capital for firms, while artificial intelligence, AI could improve drastically the productivity of firms and thus raise US GDP by close to 4 % in the positive case,

A 2026 bull market is not certain, though, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.

Another AI competition scare like the Chinese DeepSeek in 2025, excessive valuation concerns, lower Federal reserve balance sheet assets value or lower productivity growth concerns could actually bring along a down year for the S&P 500.

The risks and positive perspectives seem tilted in favor of a positive outcome, with possible large negative reaction to a negative outcome.

The S&P 500 could rise between 7 % and 12 % in a probable scenario, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections.

If, on the other hand a tightened financial conditions, financial credit or low AI productivity gains shock materializes, the S&P 500 could fall between 8 % and 19 % in 2026.

Blackstone Valuation In A Positive And A Negative AI Scenario

 

Blackstone Inc or Blackstone, the leading private equity, real estate, private credit and infrastructure asset management company's market capitalization is 159.472 billion USD.

Blackstone has heavily invested its assets under management raised in the last 5 years in artificial intelligence, AI technology companies via leveraged buyouts, in artificial intelligence, AI data centers via its real estate and private credit assets under management and in artificial intelligence, AI energy companies via its infrastructure and real estate assets under management.

If artificial intelligence, AI changes the world profoundly and lives up to the current forecasts of Wall Street research analysts and investors and Silicon Valley technologists and investors Blackstone's market capitalization could rise to 430 billion USDs. 

If on the other hand, the artificial intelligence, AI boom turns into a bust and the Nasdaq Composite falls more than 62 % from its peak, Blackstone's market capitalization could fall to 80 billion USDs.

Below are some capital metrics of Blackstone from its Q4 2025 earnings release: 

Total Assets Under Management (“AUM”) of $1,274.9 billion
– Fee-Earning AUM of $921.7 billion
– Perpetual Capital AUM of $523.6 billion
▪ Inflows of $71.5 billion in the quarter and $239.4 billion for the year
▪ Deployment of $42.2 billion in the quarter and $138.2 billion for the year
▪ Realizations of $46.1 billion in the quarter and $125.6 billion for the year 

In short, Blackstone is undervalued on its artificial intelligence, AI investments.

Blackstone's intrinsic worth is 310 billion USDs, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.