There is (very likely) no such thing as a 0 (zero) probability event

Dear Reader,

The events from the last 2 months show there is (in all probability) no such thing as a zero probability event. Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Japan (earthquake, tsunami, posiibility of a nuclear disaster...)

Results from my personal views on the markets: USO (-3.9%), GLD (-0.8%), May 21, 2011 PUT @ 134 strike is up (+13.9%). If I had invested 33.33% of my portfolio in the three mentioned instruments the result for last week will be: (-1%) +  (-0.3%) + (+5%) = +3.7% for my hypothetical portfolio.

Regarding next week. Things in Japan seem scary to say the least... I expect most risky asset classes to sell off next week, including oil despite likely unrest in Saudi Arabia.

My personal views on the market for next week: Sell USO, Buy out of the money May 21, 2011 PUT @ 134 of SPY, Sell JJA, Buy GLD.

Basically, probability is a fascinating thing...

Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets.

I do not own any of the mentioned commodities or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!