The US stock market rally could be stopped in its tracks by a policy error on the part of the Federal Reserve, sudden realization of investors that stocks are way overvalued or regulations that could force banks to account for some assets in a different way.
A fourth reason is trouble in the shadow banking sector, in private equity, private credit and real estate that is, according to Wolfteam Ltd.'s projections and estimates.
All these reasons for a stock market crash seem far away, but the probability of them happening is non-negligible at about 10 % to 20 %. With sudden geopolitical events able to raise this probability markedly.
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