BlackRock is the world leader with great distance of the fast growing index investing funds. Due mainly to index funds' investments BlackRock is the world's largest asset management company in terms of assets.
But the asset management industry's profits in the last 5-7 years are concentrated in alternative asset management, namely private credit.
BlackRock is still building out actively its private credit business and BlackRock's private credit business is most likely in the top 10.
Due to BlackRock's aggressive build out of its private credit business there are problems also.
Two weeks ago BlackRock wrote of the value of a private credit loan to 0, from 100 % value of the loan filed in its third quarter 2025 filing. Most likely this is due to both heavy AI, technology investment and fast private credit growth by BlackRock.
Most probably more private credit loans from BlackRock and the entire private credit industry will be written off due to aggressive lending growth by private credit asset managers.
If the current geopolitical inflation shock causes leading central banks to raise rates aggressively, this will send tremors in the private credit markets which is basically a leveraged trade on interest rates. If global developed markets interest rates level rise by 1 % to 2 %, the private credit will most likely write down tens of billions USDs if not hundreds of billions of USD's from the current 3.5 trillion private credit assets under management globally.
However, if there is no high scale financial crisis the private credit industry will weather such a shock without large, widespread insolvencies of both the leading large and mid cap and small private credit asset managers.
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