In the extraordinary circumstances we are in, I am going to attempt to value Walmart and Costco, food and other necessities retailers, which are often forecasted to survive and lose less market capitalization in the current crisis.
Walmart's market capitalization is down circa 3% year to date, while Costco's market capitalization is almost unchanged since the beginning of the year.
How would both Walmart and Costco perform in the current situation? Since the current coronavirus disease COVID-19 plausible recession is most likely to be deeper than the Great Recession in 2008/2009 Walmart especially is likely to perform worse than it did in the 2008 August/September December 2009 period, but Walmart's stock will still beat the main indices during the worse of the current crisis. During the Great Recession in 2008/2009 Walmart did better than the general market.
I forecast both Walmart and Costco will both shed between 20% and 30% of their market capitalization during the current market rout. The general market measured by the S&P 500, DJIA and Nasdaq Composite Indices could fall between 40% and 80% even. By 80% I mainly envisage the Nasdaq Composite.
Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are not investment recommendation, are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed on the blog are Petar Posledovich's. Petar Posledovich does not guarantee the accuracy of the information presented on this blog and social networks. The information presented is "as is".
Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.
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Respectfully yours,
Petar Posledovich
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