Russia Economy Prospects

Dear Reader,


In 2019 the economy of Russia seems to have grown by 1.3% as evidenced by the following Reuters link:https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-economy/russias-economic-growth-at-13-in-2019-slightly-above-expectations-idUSKBN1ZX1PR
In the next 1-2 different forecasts point that Russia's GDP will probably expand somewhere in the vicinity of 2% a year.

I personally think there will soon be a global economic recession, which will probably start in 2021 and go on for something like 3 to 5 years. Each year, the fall in global GDP will be shallow, between 0.5% and 1.5%, but prolonged for 3-5 years. But during the coming recession and afterwards Russia's economy should do better than both the global economy and the economies of developed countries.

Russia's economy starts from a low base of an emerging market that recently went through a mild economic crisis and by base effect purely Russia should attract capital flows and grow faster than both the global and developed countries' average economic growth in the next 5 years. Russia's stocks are seemingly undervalued and they should outperform in the next 5 years, even if Russia's and the main global stock indices fall during this period.

Russia has a relatively well educated workforce, abundancy of natural resources and good economic structures. What is more, Russia's government plans investments in large infrastructure projects for the next 2-3 years. All these factors and many others should ensure that the economy of Russia should turn out to be an outperformer in the next 5 to 7 year.

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Petar Vladimirov Posledovich is not liable for any investment losses incurred by reading and interpreting blogposts on this blog and posts on social networks.

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities, currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Respectfully yours,

Petar Posledovich