China!

Dear Reader,

My view on China is  that we are in for an average GDP growth rate of 4.0% in the next ten years.

I believe the probability for a hard landing is 60%. Hard landing could be caused by either State Owned Enterprises(SOEs) corporate loan defaults or real estate crash. The stock market is not going to post spectacular gains.

The restructuring of the Chinese economy towards more consumption takes longer that expected.

Personally, I believe China should get rid of only 'dirty' industries to decrease pollution. Manufacturing, especially with cheap labour, is one of China's competitive advantages and I think the Chinese government will be reluctant to give it up completely.

The Chinese yuan could lose value in the future.


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Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!