Central banks, gold and equities!

Dear Reader,

My call on gold from the previous week did not turn out so well in the short run. Gold actually rose. In the long run, however, I am of the opinion that gold could fall to 700 - 800 USD.

Regarding Central banks, I believe the European Central Bank will start eurozone government bonds purchases in the second half of the year, if at all(!). The Federal Reserve could start to raise the Federal Funds Rate from the second half of 2015 with 0.25% from every meeting.  I believe prices of eurozone government bonds will fall along with US treasuries and the respective yields will rise.

Somewhere in 2015, the US equity markets could enter a bear market(>20% fall). Actually, the market overall does not seem to be in a bubble state, but some sectors like Technology and Biotech definitely seem overvalued. The overall US economy, however, is quite fragile in my opinion...

The Chinese equity market is an interesting story. I believe the rally should extent into the first quarter of 2015!

Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for informational purposes, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost!