Dear Reader,
Happy Easter to all christians!
I will let the positions from the previous post run till NYSE close on Friday, 29 April 2011.
The disclaimer from the previous post is valid in this post as well!
Stocks valuations, analysis. Unbiased. Insightful. Property of Wolfteam Ltd., www.wolfteamedge.com If you find the blog useful, LINK TO www.posledovich.blogspot.com Stocks, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, AI, analysis, insights. CLICK ADVERTISEMENTS, SHARE ON SOCIAL NETWORKS! Technology, Bitcoin, AI, company strategy, stocks analysis. Stocks, crypto involve high RISK! Nothing on this blog is meant or should be construed as investment recommendation to buy or sell securities or their derivatives!
Independent, Unbiased Stocks, Equities Analysis, Valuations. Investing Insights. No Recommendations!
Stocks valuations, analysis. Unbiased. Insightful. Property of Wolfteam Ltd., www.wolfteamedge.com If you find the blog useful, LINK TO www.posledovich.blogspot.com Stocks, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, AI, analysis, insights. CLICK ADVERTISEMENTS, SHARE ON SOCIAL NETWORKS! Technology, Bitcoin, AI, company strategy, stocks analysis. Stocks, crypto involve high RISK! Nothing on this blog is meant or should be construed as investment recommendation to buy or sell securities or their derivatives!
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Monday, April 18, 2011
It's a curse to live in interesting (volatile) times! Volatility, however, can be a good thing.
Dear Reader,
S&P today put the USA on negative watch (!) Wow! This is basically history unfloding before our eyes. The Great recession (2008), Middle East, Japan(earthquake and nuclear crises), The EU sovereign crises, now this.
The global pond is swarming with black swans. Unbelievable!
Results from last week: Long USO (-2.8%), Long SLV (+5.1%), Long JJA (-4.1%), Short XLF (+1.9%).
If each position comprised 25% of the portfolio the result would would have been:
0.25*(-0.028) + 0.25*(+0.051) + 0.25*(-0.041)+ 0.25*(+0.019)= +0.01%. At least I would not have hypothetically lost money.
Anyway, my personal view on the market for next week is: Buy USO, Buy SLV, Sell XLK (SPDR technology), Sell XLF. Starting point today NYSE's close, end point Friday 22.04.2011 NYSE close.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, Stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
S&P today put the USA on negative watch (!) Wow! This is basically history unfloding before our eyes. The Great recession (2008), Middle East, Japan(earthquake and nuclear crises), The EU sovereign crises, now this.
The global pond is swarming with black swans. Unbelievable!
Results from last week: Long USO (-2.8%), Long SLV (+5.1%), Long JJA (-4.1%), Short XLF (+1.9%).
If each position comprised 25% of the portfolio the result would would have been:
0.25*(-0.028) + 0.25*(+0.051) + 0.25*(-0.041)+ 0.25*(+0.019)= +0.01%. At least I would not have hypothetically lost money.
Anyway, my personal view on the market for next week is: Buy USO, Buy SLV, Sell XLK (SPDR technology), Sell XLF. Starting point today NYSE's close, end point Friday 22.04.2011 NYSE close.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, Stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Markets seem to go up (almost) all the time. Will this continue?
Dear Reader,
Last week the price of oil continued to rise and the uprisings in the Middle East are from over. Gold and silver seem to be entering bubble territory. Silver went up 8.1% last week.
Results from last week: Long USO (+4.6%), Long SLV (+8.1%), Long JJA (+2.2%), Short XLF (+0.4%).
If each position comprised 25% of the portfolio the result would would have been:
0.25*(+0.046) + 0.25*(+0.081) + 0.25*(+0.022)+ 0.25*(+0.004)= 0.0115+ 0.0203+ 0.0055 + 0.0010=0.0383= +3.83%. A good result.
Commodities and precious metals, however, are entering dangerous highs. Markets can continue to go up a long, long time and it does not seem a very good idea to be short. There is too much liquidity all over the world, some commodities are above their 2008 highs, some are a fraction lower...
Anyway, my personal view on the market for next week is: Buy USO, Buy SLV, Buy JJA, Sell XLF.
Basically, the same as last week, but I expect a major pullback in risk assets to take place soon. Precious metals, basic metals and agriculture (cotton, sugar) seem ready to sell off sharply. The same goes for equities.
However, for now the supply of more liquidity to the markets seems to support prices.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, Stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
Last week the price of oil continued to rise and the uprisings in the Middle East are from over. Gold and silver seem to be entering bubble territory. Silver went up 8.1% last week.
Results from last week: Long USO (+4.6%), Long SLV (+8.1%), Long JJA (+2.2%), Short XLF (+0.4%).
If each position comprised 25% of the portfolio the result would would have been:
0.25*(+0.046) + 0.25*(+0.081) + 0.25*(+0.022)+ 0.25*(+0.004)= 0.0115+ 0.0203+ 0.0055 + 0.0010=0.0383= +3.83%. A good result.
Commodities and precious metals, however, are entering dangerous highs. Markets can continue to go up a long, long time and it does not seem a very good idea to be short. There is too much liquidity all over the world, some commodities are above their 2008 highs, some are a fraction lower...
Anyway, my personal view on the market for next week is: Buy USO, Buy SLV, Buy JJA, Sell XLF.
Basically, the same as last week, but I expect a major pullback in risk assets to take place soon. Precious metals, basic metals and agriculture (cotton, sugar) seem ready to sell off sharply. The same goes for equities.
However, for now the supply of more liquidity to the markets seems to support prices.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, Stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Uncertainty remains. Volatility was not present last week (!) The probability of this lasting is not high, according to my (humble) opinion.
Dear Reader,
Results from hypothetical trades last week: short USO (-4.3%) and long SLV (+1.9%), so the portfolio result is: 0.5*(-4.3%) + 0.5*(+1.9%) = (-2.15%) + (+0.95%) = -1.2%
Seems the uncertainty was way to high for oil to go down. I heard an analyst say that Libya (2% of global oil production) was responsible for a $20 up move. And some people say there is enough oil in Cushing Oklahoma to cover the needs of the USA for (long) enough time ?! :-)
There some 200 mln cars in the US, according to various news sources...
My hypothetical views for next week: Buy SLV, Buy USO, Buy JJA, Sell XLF.
If the stock market goes down, financials will hurt, as far as I can asses.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, Stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!
Results from hypothetical trades last week: short USO (-4.3%) and long SLV (+1.9%), so the portfolio result is: 0.5*(-4.3%) + 0.5*(+1.9%) = (-2.15%) + (+0.95%) = -1.2%
Seems the uncertainty was way to high for oil to go down. I heard an analyst say that Libya (2% of global oil production) was responsible for a $20 up move. And some people say there is enough oil in Cushing Oklahoma to cover the needs of the USA for (long) enough time ?! :-)
There some 200 mln cars in the US, according to various news sources...
My hypothetical views for next week: Buy SLV, Buy USO, Buy JJA, Sell XLF.
If the stock market goes down, financials will hurt, as far as I can asses.
Disclaimer: Please be advised, this is NOT a reccomendation to buy the mentioned securities, commodities or their derivatives. This is just my personal, hypothetical view on the markets. I do not own any of the mentioned commodities (apart from regular day to day use) or their derivatives traded on exchanges, and options on indices or ETFs, Stocks traded on exchanges and I do not plan to own them in the next 72 hours!