US Stocks!

Dear Reader,

I think oil woul hit 55 USD, but will trade in a range of 50 to 60 USD in much of the rest of 2016.

Global oil stocks have a bit further to rise.

There is a risk of large US stock market correction, bear market even.
DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P 500 could fall up to 20% from recent peaks.Gold is also prone to a large correction. Gold price could go back to 1050 USD in 2016. Gold stocks could sell off.

EUR/USD could go back to 1.05. USD/YEN could hit 100 in 2016.

I believe there is a distinct possibility of one federal funds rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2016.

Parts of the tech bubble have already popped(GoPro, GroupOn, Fuel, Twitter, LinkedIn etc.), but a large scale economic disruption coming from tech stocks seems unlikely. Much of the market is nonpublic, so mainly Private Equity funds will suffer.

Many individuals hold nonpublic shares, so there is a small probability that a tech bubble bursting could hurt the average consumer.

All in all, I foresee mediocre returns from the US stock market. DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq should rise no more than 5-10% in 2016, with 5% increase more likely.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!

Oil at 70 USD, Global Stocks, Bonds!

Dear Reader,


Oil, both WTI and brent, could easily go to 70 USD.

Global oil majors should outperfrom.

As far as US and Eurozone stocks are concerned, things are tricky. I believe the correlation between oil and the US stock market is about to break down, diminish.

The Federal reserve could surprise markets and hike in June. Honestly, I am 50:50 if there would be one or two hikes of the Federal Funds Rate in 2016.

Gold is prone to a large fall, I think. Gold could go to 1050 USD and global gold producers could shed more than 30% of their value.

EUR/USD should again go close to 1.05. USD/Yen could touch 100.


Disclaimer: The blogposts and comments on this blog and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are provided solely for informational purposes, and do not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.) are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!



Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities,currencies or their derivatives mentioned in the blogpost and posts on social networks(Twitter, LinkedIn etc.)!