Gold and Yen!

Dear Reader,

Oil continues its precipitous fall. On the currency front I expect the USD/YEN to reach 125 in 1 year and 140 in 2-3 years.

Monday will be an interesting day for gold. On Sunday the results of the referendum in Switzerland will be known. I personally expect gold to gap lower on Monday. A good way to play this is being short major gold miners's stocks and/or buying mid term put options.


Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for informational purposes, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost!

State of market affairs!

Dear Reader,

I haven't written in the blog for a while. Meanwhile my prediction that there is going to be a correction came true with 9.9% fall in the S&P 500 in September/October. The market fully recovered since then.

However, I still expect that there is going to be more serious fall (20-30% in the main indices) and 30-40% in technology stocks in 1 to 2 years, once the Federal Reserve starts tightening. Basically, there is a bubble in technology stocks. The valuation of the US stock market(excluding some pockets) is too high for the economic environment the world is in.

The EUR/USD is well on its way to 1.00 in 2 to 3 years. The 10 year treasury should hit 3% or more in the same time span. The German 10 year yield should climb higher from the current lows.

For now, though, in my opinion it seems smart to be long certain value US stocks.


Disclaimer: This article is provided solely for informational purposes, and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the blogpost are the author's and they in no way express the opinion or official position of Bulgarian National Bank!

Conflicts of interest: I may possess some of the securities or currencies mentioned in the blogpost!